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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Porto

S S S U T

2–0

Full-time

Estrela

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 46%

67%

24%

Points per game

2,1

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

48%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

48%

52%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,06 xG 0,24

69% Possession 31%

16 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 3. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	20	17	1	2	+39	+27.2	52
2	Benfica	21	16	4	1	+32	+25.1	52
3	Porto	21	14	3	4	+19	+13.0	45
4	Guimaraes	22	12	5	5	+12	+7.2	41
5	Sp Braga	21	12	4	5	+12	+11.8	40
6	Moreirense	21	10	5	6	+2	+0.5	35
7	Arouca	21	8	4	9	+6	-0.6	28
8	Farense	21	7	5	9	+0	-4.8	26
9	Famalicao	21	6	8	7	-4	-6.2	26
10	Boavista	22	6	6	10	-10	-9.6	24
11	Gil Vicente	21	6	4	11	-5	-7.0	22
12	Portimonense	22	6	4	12	-21	-13.5	22
13	Estoril	21	6	3	12	-2	-8.5	21
14	Rio Ave	22	4	9	9	-9	+1.6	21
15	Estrela	21	5	6	10	-10	-6.3	21
16	Casa Pia	21	5	5	11	-16	-8.3	20
17	Chaves	22	4	5	13	-26	-14.0	17
18	Vizela	21	3	7	11	-19	-7.6	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	11	11	0	0	+30	+18.7	33
2	Benfica	10	8	2	0	+19	+15.7	26
3	Guimaraes	11	8	1	2	+13	+9.2	25
4	Porto	10	7	2	1	+12	+13.2	23
5	Gil Vicente	11	5	4	2	+9	-2.2	19
6	Sp Braga	10	5	3	2	+10	+14.6	18
7	Moreirense	10	5	2	3	+2	+1.5	17
8	Estoril	10	5	1	4	+10	+0.9	16
9	Rio Ave	11	4	4	3	+1	+4.3	16
10	Farense	11	4	3	4	+3	+1.0	15
11	Famalicao	10	4	3	3	-1	-1.7	15
12	Arouca	11	4	2	5	+2	-0.4	14
13	Estrela	11	4	1	6	-4	-3.9	13
14	Boavista	11	3	4	4	-6	-3.1	13
15	Chaves	11	3	3	5	-6	-2.8	12
16	Portimonense	11	3	3	5	-6	-4.9	12
17	Casa Pia	10	1	3	6	-8	-2.4	6
18	Vizela	11	1	3	7	-12	-2.2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	11	8	2	1	+13	+9.5	26
2	Porto	11	7	1	3	+7	-0.2	22
3	Sp Braga	11	7	1	3	+2	-2.8	22
4	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+9	+8.6	19
5	Moreirense	11	5	3	3	+0	-1.1	18
6	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	-1	-2.0	16
7	Arouca	10	4	2	4	+4	-0.2	14
8	Casa Pia	11	4	2	5	-8	-5.9	14
9	Farense	10	3	2	5	-3	-5.9	11
10	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-3	-4.5	11
11	Boavista	11	3	2	6	-4	-6.5	11
12	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-7	-5.4	10
13	Portimonense	11	3	1	7	-15	-8.5	10
14	Estrela	10	1	5	4	-6	-2.4	8
15	Rio Ave	11	0	5	6	-10	-2.7	5
16	Estoril	11	1	2	8	-12	-9.5	5
17	Chaves	11	1	2	8	-20	-11.2	5
18	Gil Vicente	10	1	0	9	-14	-4.7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.