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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Lasyk
2–2
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Pogon Szczecin Radomiak Radom
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,7
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 38%
35%
41%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
65%
76%
Both score Ø 71%
65%
76%
Average goals
3,3
3,6
Scored
1,5
1,9
Conceded
1,8
1,6
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,63 xG 0,97
44% Possession 56%
15 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
9 Corners 7
7 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 15
5 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Pogon Szczecin 13. · Radomiak Radom 6.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Gornik Zabrze 18 9 3 6 +5 -3.6 30
2 Wisla Plock 17 7 8 2 +9 +3.2 29
3 Jagiellonia 15 8 4 3 +9 -2.2 28
4 Cracovia 17 7 5 5 +4 +2.1 26
5 Rakow 16 8 2 6 +3 +3.5 26
6 Radomiak Radom 17 7 4 6 +5 +1.5 25
7 Lech Poznan 16 6 7 3 +3 +11.1 25
8 Lechia Gdansk 18 7 4 7 +0 -0.1 25
9 Korona Kielce 17 6 5 6 +2 -0.6 23
10 Zaglebie 16 5 7 4 +5 -1.4 22
11 Arka Gdynia 18 6 3 9 -17 -6.4 21
12 Widzew Lodz 17 6 2 9 -1 +3.2 20
13 Pogon Szczecin 17 6 2 9 -4 +7.2 20
14 GKS Katowice 16 6 2 8 -4 -7.2 20
15 Motor Lublin 17 4 8 5 -5 -2.4 20
16 Legia 16 4 7 5 +1 +1.3 19
17 Nieciecza 17 4 4 9 -12 -3.8 16
18 Piast Gliwice 15 3 5 7 -3 -5.5 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Pogon Szczecin Radomiak Radom
Benjamin Mendy 🟨
23′
Dimitrios Keramitsis 🟨
30′
30′
🟨 Roberto Alves
1–0 S. Greenwood
37′
2–0 P. Mukairu
40′
Half-time 2–0
Sam Greenwood 🟨
52′
54′
E. Balde 2–1
J. Grzesik
59′
🔁 C. Donis
↦ M. Kaput
59′
🔁 R. Baro
↦ V. Lopes
A. Przyborek 🔁
↦ J. Pozo
67′
67′
🔁 J. Wilson-Esbrand
↦ E. Balde
67′
🔁 A. Tapsoba
↦ Maurides
Danijel Lončar 🟨
69′
M. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ S. Greenwood
75′
76′
A. Tapsoba 2–2
J. Wilson-Esbrand
82′
🟨 Jan Grzesik
Mor Ndiaye 🟨
83′
K. Smolinski 🔁
↦ L. Koutris
86′
M. Juwara 🔁
↦ P. Mukairu
86′
90′
🔁 Leandro
↦ R. Wolski
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Pogon Szczecin

4-2-2-2
77 V. Cojocaru G
28 L. Wahlqvist D
13 D. Keramitsis D
22 D. Loncar D
23 B. Mendy D
8 F. Ulvestad M
90 S. Greenwood M
14 J. Pozo M
32 L. Koutris M
11 K. Grosicki F
18 P. Mukairu F
Bench (12)
31 K. Kaminski
2 M. Huja
17 J. Lis
15 H. Ali
19 M. Ndiaye
6 J. Bieganski
35 M. Wojciechowski
61 K. Smolinski
10 A. Przyborek
7 M. Juwara
20 P. Paryzek
99 K. Kostorz

Coach: Thomas Thomasberg

Radomiak Radom

4-1-4-1
1 F. Majchrowicz G
24 Zie Ouattara D
74 S. Kingue D
26 A. Dieguez D
13 J. Grzesik D
28 M. Kaput M
7 V. Lopes M
10 R. Alves M
27 R. Wolski M
21 E. Balde M
25 Maurides F
Bench (12)
44 W. Koptas
75 M. Jerke
16 M. Cichocki
5 J. Blasco
3 J. Wilson-Esbrand
20 Joao Pedro
77 C. Donis
6 R. Baro
37 M. Molendowski
9 Leandro
15 A. Tapsoba
17 A. Niziolek

Coach: Goncalo Feio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Lasyk · 90 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.