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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Ath Bilbao

S T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Ath Madrid

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

60%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,9

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,15 xG 0,69

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 8. · Ath Madrid 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	13	1	2	+27	+15.2	40
2	Real Madrid	15	11	3	1	+19	+19.7	36
3	Villarreal	15	11	2	2	+18	+8.8	35
4	Ath Madrid	15	9	4	2	+14	+9.3	31
5	Betis	15	6	6	3	+6	+6.0	24
6	Espanol	14	7	3	4	+2	+5.2	24
7	Getafe	15	6	2	7	-4	-3.9	20
8	Ath Bilbao	15	6	2	7	-6	+4.3	20
9	Alaves	15	5	3	7	-2	+1.3	18
10	Vallecano	14	4	5	5	-2	+2.1	17
11	Elche	14	3	7	4	-2	-5.2	16
12	Sociedad	15	4	4	7	-3	+0.5	16
13	Celta	14	3	7	4	-3	-1.8	16
14	Sevilla	14	5	1	8	-4	-10.3	16
15	Mallorca	15	3	5	7	-7	-11.3	14
16	Valencia	14	3	5	6	-9	-5.9	14
17	Osasuna	14	3	3	8	-6	-3.7	12
18	Girona	14	2	6	6	-13	-11.2	12
19	Oviedo	15	2	4	9	-15	-13.9	10
20	Levante	14	2	3	9	-10	-5.4	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	+21	+12.5	24
2	Villarreal	8	7	1	0	+16	+7.3	22
3	Ath Madrid	8	7	1	0	+14	+12.1	22
4	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	+9.9	18
5	Espanol	8	5	1	2	+2	+2.2	16
6	Alaves	8	4	2	2	+3	+2.7	14
7	Elche	7	3	4	0	+4	+0.4	13
8	Betis	8	4	1	3	+3	+3.8	13
9	Ath Bilbao	8	4	1	3	-1	+6.1	13
10	Valencia	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.6	11
11	Getafe	7	3	2	2	+2	-2.8	11
12	Osasuna	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.7	10
13	Sociedad	7	3	1	3	+0	+2.7	10
14	Mallorca	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.4	10
15	Girona	8	2	3	3	-6	-7.0	9
16	Vallecano	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.0	7
17	Sevilla	7	2	1	4	-2	-2.1	7
18	Oviedo	8	1	3	4	-8	-8.1	6
19	Celta	8	0	5	3	-5	+0.1	5
20	Levante	6	0	1	5	-10	-6.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	5	3	1	+8	+9.8	18
2	Barcelona	8	5	1	2	+6	+2.6	16
3	Villarreal	7	4	1	2	+2	+1.5	13
4	Betis	7	2	5	0	+3	+2.2	11
5	Celta	6	3	2	1	+2	-1.9	11
6	Vallecano	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.9	10
7	Ath Madrid	7	2	3	2	+0	-2.7	9
8	Sevilla	7	3	0	4	-2	-8.2	9
9	Getafe	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.1	9
10	Levante	8	2	2	4	+0	+1.2	8
11	Espanol	6	2	2	2	+0	+3.1	8
12	Ath Bilbao	7	2	1	4	-5	-1.8	7
13	Sociedad	8	1	3	4	-3	-2.2	6
14	Alaves	7	1	1	5	-5	-1.5	4
15	Mallorca	8	1	1	6	-6	-7.9	4
16	Oviedo	7	1	1	5	-7	-5.7	4
17	Elche	7	0	3	4	-6	-5.6	3
18	Girona	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.2	3
19	Valencia	7	0	3	4	-12	-9.4	3
20	Osasuna	8	0	2	6	-7	-4.3	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.