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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Martin Petersen

Darmstadt

U S S U T

3–2

Full-time

Karlsruhe

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Darmstadt Karlsruhe

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

4,0

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

50%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

50%

71%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

4,06 xG 0,53

58% Possession 42%

25 Shots 10

10 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 9

1 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Darmstadt 5. · Karlsruhe 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	15	11	1	3	+12	+4.3	34
2	Elversberg	15	9	3	3	+15	-0.8	30
3	Paderborn	15	9	2	4	+6	+1.1	29
4	Hannover	15	8	4	3	+9	+1.6	28
5	Darmstadt	14	7	5	2	+10	+5.1	26
6	Kaiserslautern	15	8	2	5	+9	+2.7	26
7	Hertha	14	8	2	4	+7	-0.4	26
8	Karlsruhe	14	6	3	5	-3	-6.8	21
9	Bochum	15	6	1	8	+1	+6.8	19
10	Preußen Münster	15	5	4	6	-3	-0.7	19
11	Nurnberg	14	5	3	6	-4	+0.4	18
12	Bielefeld	15	5	2	8	+3	-0.4	17
13	Holstein Kiel	14	4	3	7	-3	-3.8	15
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	2	9	-12	-6.3	14
15	Dresden	15	3	4	8	-8	-1.1	13
16	Braunschweig	14	4	1	9	-11	+1.4	13
17	Greuther Furth	14	4	1	9	-17	-4.7	13
18	Magdeburg	14	3	1	10	-11	+1.6	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	8	6	1	1	+11	+4.8	19
2	Schalke 04	7	6	0	1	+5	+2.6	18
3	Elversberg	7	4	3	0	+9	-0.3	15
4	Darmstadt	7	4	3	0	+8	+4.2	15
5	Karlsruhe	7	5	0	2	+4	-2.7	15
6	Paderborn	8	5	0	3	+2	+0.6	15
7	Preußen Münster	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.8	13
8	Hertha	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.1	13
9	Bielefeld	8	4	0	4	+7	+5.1	12
10	Bochum	7	4	0	3	+3	+6.6	12
11	Hannover	7	4	0	3	+1	+2.0	12
12	Nurnberg	7	3	2	2	+0	+0.9	11
13	Holstein Kiel	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.5	8
14	Braunschweig	7	2	1	4	-6	+3.2	7
15	Greuther Furth	7	2	1	4	-9	-3.0	7
16	Magdeburg	7	2	0	5	-4	+3.6	6
17	Dresden	7	1	2	4	-3	+2.9	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	2	5	-8	-3.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	8	4	4	0	+8	-0.4	16
2	Schalke 04	8	5	1	2	+7	+1.7	16
3	Elversberg	8	5	0	3	+6	-0.5	15
4	Paderborn	7	4	2	1	+4	+0.5	14
5	Hertha	7	4	1	2	+6	-1.5	13
6	Darmstadt	7	3	2	2	+2	+0.9	11
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	3	0	4	-4	-3.1	9
8	Dresden	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.0	8
9	Bochum	8	2	1	5	-2	+0.2	7
10	Kaiserslautern	7	2	1	4	-2	-2.1	7
11	Holstein Kiel	7	2	1	4	-3	-3.4	7
12	Nurnberg	7	2	1	4	-4	-0.5	7
13	Braunschweig	7	2	0	5	-5	-1.8	6
14	Preußen Münster	7	2	0	5	-6	+0.1	6
15	Karlsruhe	7	1	3	3	-7	-4.0	6
16	Greuther Furth	7	2	0	5	-8	-1.7	6
17	Bielefeld	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.5	5
18	Magdeburg	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.