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Primeira Liga

Referee: M Torres

Moreirense

T T S T U

1–1

Full-time

Nacional

T U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Moreirense Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 32%

42%

21%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

58%

54%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,94 xG 1,41

46% Possession 54%

7 Shots 20

2 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Moreirense 7. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	24	21	2	1	+39	+30.6	65
2	Sp Lisbon	24	19	4	1	+50	+35.7	61
3	Benfica	24	17	7	0	+37	+30.1	58
4	Sp Braga	24	13	6	5	+27	+22.7	45
5	Gil Vicente	24	11	7	6	+12	+8.4	40
6	Famalicao	25	11	6	8	+9	+5.9	39
7	Moreirense	24	10	4	10	-4	-10.5	34
8	Estoril	24	9	6	9	+4	-5.0	33
9	Guimaraes	24	9	5	10	-7	-5.5	32
10	Alverca	24	7	6	11	-15	-3.3	27
11	Arouca	25	7	5	13	-21	-20.5	26
12	Estrela	24	5	9	10	-15	-10.7	24
13	Casa Pia	24	5	8	11	-18	-20.5	23
14	Nacional	24	5	6	13	-8	-8.8	21
15	Rio Ave	24	4	9	11	-21	-19.5	21
16	Santa Clara	24	4	7	13	-11	+0.5	19
17	Tondela	24	4	7	13	-19	-6.9	19
18	AVS	24	1	6	17	-39	-22.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+20	+18.0	32
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+32	+22.4	31
3	Benfica	12	8	4	0	+20	+18.9	28
4	Sp Braga	11	7	2	2	+16	+13.7	23
5	Famalicao	13	7	2	4	+13	+7.0	23
6	Gil Vicente	12	7	2	3	+10	+5.8	23
7	Estoril	12	6	4	2	+9	-1.2	22
8	Guimaraes	13	6	4	3	+2	-2.5	22
9	Moreirense	11	6	1	4	-1	-5.1	19
10	Alverca	12	5	3	4	-5	+4.7	18
11	Arouca	12	4	3	5	-6	-6.9	15
12	Estrela	12	3	4	5	-5	-0.1	13
13	Casa Pia	12	2	6	4	-6	-10.2	12
14	Nacional	12	3	2	7	-3	-4.5	11
15	Santa Clara	12	3	2	7	-4	+2.3	11
16	Rio Ave	12	2	4	6	-9	-5.4	10
17	Tondela	12	1	5	6	-7	-4.0	8
18	AVS	13	1	4	8	-13	-8.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	12	11	0	1	+19	+12.6	33
2	Sp Lisbon	12	9	3	0	+18	+13.3	30
3	Benfica	12	9	3	0	+17	+11.1	30
4	Sp Braga	13	6	4	3	+11	+9.0	22
5	Gil Vicente	12	4	5	3	+2	+2.5	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	-4	-1.1	16
7	Moreirense	13	4	3	6	-3	-5.4	15
8	Estoril	12	3	2	7	-5	-3.8	11
9	Estrela	12	2	5	5	-10	-10.5	11
10	Rio Ave	12	2	5	5	-12	-14.1	11
11	Tondela	12	3	2	7	-12	-2.9	11
12	Casa Pia	12	3	2	7	-12	-10.3	11
13	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-15	-13.6	11
14	Nacional	12	2	4	6	-5	-4.2	10
15	Guimaraes	11	3	1	7	-9	-3.0	10
16	Alverca	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.0	9
17	Santa Clara	12	1	5	6	-7	-1.8	8
18	AVS	11	0	2	9	-26	-14.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.