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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Siebert

FC Koln

S T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Dortmund

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

FC Koln Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 44%

25%

63%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

58%

Both score Ø 63%

71%

54%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,28 xG 2,00

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

5 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match FC Koln 13. · Dortmund 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	25	21	3	1	+68	+48.0	66
2	Dortmund	24	15	7	2	+26	+14.2	52
3	Hoffenheim	25	15	4	6	+20	+3.4	49
4	Stuttgart	25	14	5	6	+16	+5.9	47
5	RB Leipzig	25	14	5	6	+14	+12.3	47
6	Leverkusen	25	13	5	7	+16	+12.6	44
7	Ein Frankfurt	24	9	7	8	-1	-2.5	34
8	Freiburg	25	9	7	9	-5	+3.8	34
9	Augsburg	25	9	4	12	-12	-12.6	31
10	Hamburg	25	7	8	10	-8	-9.9	29
11	Union Berlin	24	7	7	10	-9	-1.5	28
12	M'gladbach	25	6	7	12	-15	-5.7	25
13	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	-8	-6.3	24
14	Mainz	25	5	9	11	-12	-7.4	24
15	St Pauli	24	6	5	13	-17	-16.3	23
16	Werder Bremen	24	5	7	12	-19	-7.6	22
17	Wolfsburg	25	5	5	15	-21	-13.9	20
18	Heidenheim	25	3	5	17	-33	-16.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+39	+25.6	34
2	Dortmund	12	9	2	1	+17	+11.1	29
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+9	+5.9	29
4	RB Leipzig	13	8	2	3	+11	+7.6	26
5	Freiburg	12	7	4	1	+9	+11.0	25
6	Hoffenheim	12	8	0	4	+13	+5.7	24
7	Leverkusen	12	7	2	3	+14	+12.9	23
8	Augsburg	13	6	3	4	-2	-6.3	21
9	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	2	4	+4	+3.6	20
10	Hamburg	13	5	4	4	+3	-1.2	19
11	Union Berlin	12	4	5	3	+0	+2.7	17
12	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-7	+3.3	16
13	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	+2	+1.3	15
14	St Pauli	11	4	3	4	-5	-3.1	15
15	Mainz	13	3	5	5	-1	+4.7	14
16	M'gladbach	12	3	4	5	-7	-1.4	13
17	Heidenheim	13	2	4	7	-16	-9.1	10
18	Wolfsburg	13	2	3	8	-8	-2.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+29	+22.4	32
2	Hoffenheim	13	7	4	2	+7	-2.3	25
3	Dortmund	12	6	5	1	+9	+3.1	23
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+3	+4.7	21
5	Leverkusen	13	6	3	4	+2	-0.3	21
6	Stuttgart	13	5	3	5	+7	+0.0	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-5	-6.1	14
8	M'gladbach	13	3	3	7	-8	-4.3	12
9	Union Berlin	12	3	2	7	-9	-4.2	11
10	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-13	-11.1	11
11	Augsburg	12	3	1	8	-10	-6.3	10
12	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.1	10
13	Hamburg	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.7	10
14	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-10	-7.6	9
15	Freiburg	13	2	3	8	-14	-7.2	9
16	St Pauli	13	2	2	9	-12	-13.2	8
17	Werder Bremen	12	1	3	8	-12	-11.0	6
18	Heidenheim	12	1	1	10	-17	-7.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.