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Primeira Liga

Referee: Helder Malheiro

Nacional

T S T T S

3–2

Full-time

Moreirense

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

29%

71%

Points per game

1,0

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

29%

57%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,73 xG 2,09

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 14. · Moreirense 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+18	+11.6	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	+13.1	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+9	+7.9	17
4	Moreirense	7	5	0	2	+2	-2.8	15
5	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.9	13
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+4	+2.0	12
7	Sp Braga	7	2	3	2	+4	+2.6	9
8	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-3	+2.0	8
9	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.1	8
10	Casa Pia	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
11	Arouca	7	2	2	3	-9	-8.4	8
12	Estrela	7	1	4	2	+0	+0.8	7
13	Alverca	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.1	7
14	Nacional	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.4	7
15	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-3	-5.4	6
16	Rio Ave	7	0	5	2	-5	-6.5	5
17	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-7	-3.6	5
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-13	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
3	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+8	+6.5	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
6	Alverca	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.4	6
7	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.4	5
8	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
9	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.4	4
10	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
12	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
13	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.5	4
14	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
15	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
16	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
17	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.3	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
5	Nacional	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
6	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
7	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
8	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Estrela	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
12	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.2	3
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.9	3
14	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.4	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
17	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
18	AVS	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.