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Bundesliga

Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Mainz

S S T U U

2–2

Full-time

Stuttgart

S S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Stuttgart

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 40%

21%

58%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,1

2,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,73 xG 0,98

38% Possession 62%

18 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 14. · Stuttgart 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	25	21	3	1	+68	+48.0	66
2	Dortmund	24	15	7	2	+26	+14.2	52
3	Hoffenheim	24	14	4	6	+18	+2.1	46
4	Stuttgart	24	14	4	6	+16	+7.7	46
5	RB Leipzig	24	13	5	6	+13	+13.2	44
6	Leverkusen	24	13	4	7	+16	+13.2	43
7	Ein Frankfurt	24	9	7	8	-1	-2.5	34
8	Freiburg	24	9	6	9	-5	+3.2	33
9	Augsburg	24	9	4	11	-11	-13.6	31
10	Union Berlin	24	7	7	10	-9	-1.5	28
11	Hamburg	24	6	8	10	-9	-9.5	26
12	M'gladbach	25	6	7	12	-15	-5.7	25
13	FC Koln	24	6	6	12	-8	-6.3	24
14	Mainz	24	5	8	11	-12	-9.2	23
15	St Pauli	24	6	5	13	-17	-16.3	23
16	Werder Bremen	24	5	7	12	-19	-7.6	22
17	Wolfsburg	24	5	5	14	-20	-14.2	20
18	Heidenheim	24	3	5	16	-31	-15.2	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	11	1	1	+39	+25.6	34
2	Dortmund	12	9	2	1	+17	+11.1	29
3	Stuttgart	12	9	2	1	+9	+5.9	29
4	Hoffenheim	12	8	0	4	+13	+5.7	24
5	Freiburg	11	7	3	1	+9	+10.4	24
6	Leverkusen	12	7	2	3	+14	+12.9	23
7	RB Leipzig	12	7	2	3	+10	+8.5	23
8	Augsburg	13	6	3	4	-2	-6.3	21
9	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	2	4	+4	+3.6	20
10	Hamburg	13	5	4	4	+3	-1.2	19
11	Union Berlin	12	4	5	3	+0	+2.7	17
12	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-7	+3.3	16
13	FC Koln	12	4	3	5	+2	+1.3	15
14	St Pauli	11	4	3	4	-5	-3.1	15
15	Mainz	12	3	4	5	-1	+2.9	13
16	M'gladbach	12	3	4	5	-7	-1.4	13
17	Heidenheim	12	2	4	6	-14	-7.9	10
18	Wolfsburg	12	2	3	7	-7	-3.1	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	10	2	0	+29	+22.4	32
2	Dortmund	12	6	5	1	+9	+3.1	23
3	Hoffenheim	12	6	4	2	+5	-3.5	22
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+3	+4.7	21
5	Leverkusen	12	6	2	4	+2	+0.2	20
6	Stuttgart	12	5	2	5	+7	+1.8	17
7	Ein Frankfurt	12	3	5	4	-5	-6.1	14
8	M'gladbach	13	3	3	7	-8	-4.3	12
9	Union Berlin	12	3	2	7	-9	-4.2	11
10	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-13	-11.1	11
11	Augsburg	11	3	1	7	-9	-7.3	10
12	Mainz	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.1	10
13	FC Koln	12	2	3	7	-10	-7.6	9
14	Freiburg	13	2	3	8	-14	-7.2	9
15	St Pauli	13	2	2	9	-12	-13.2	8
16	Hamburg	11	1	4	6	-12	-8.3	7
17	Werder Bremen	12	1	3	8	-12	-11.0	6
18	Heidenheim	12	1	1	10	-17	-7.3	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.