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Serie B

Referee: F Maresca

Spezia

U T S T U

4–2

Full-time

Monza

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spezia Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

21%

64%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

36%

46%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,6

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

1,60 xG 0,87

51% Possession 49%

18 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 2

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Spezia 19. · Monza 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	28	18	6	4	+33	+24.2	60
2	Monza	28	18	6	4	+23	+12.8	60
3	Frosinone	28	15	10	3	+24	+6.7	55
4	Palermo	28	15	9	4	+26	+9.0	54
5	Catanzaro	28	12	10	6	+10	+0.7	46
6	Modena	28	12	7	9	+13	+7.2	43
7	Juve Stabia	28	9	13	6	+0	+3.1	40
8	Cesena	28	11	5	12	-5	+4.7	38
9	Sudtirol	28	8	13	7	+3	-2.5	37
10	Padova	28	8	10	10	-5	-5.8	34
11	Carrarese	28	7	11	10	-5	-8.8	32
12	Empoli	28	7	10	11	-5	+1.1	31
13	Sampdoria	28	7	9	12	-8	+1.1	30
14	Avellino	28	7	9	12	-16	-15.9	30
15	Reggiana	28	7	8	13	-11	-4.8	29
16	Virtus Entella	28	6	10	12	-14	-11.3	28
17	Bari	28	6	10	12	-15	-13.7	28
18	Mantova	28	7	6	15	-16	-0.9	27
19	Spezia	28	6	8	14	-12	-0.6	26
20	Pescara	28	4	10	14	-20	-6.3	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	14	12	0	2	+22	+11.9	36
2	Palermo	15	11	3	1	+21	+6.2	36
3	Monza	14	11	2	1	+16	+9.5	35
4	Catanzaro	14	7	6	1	+9	+1.5	27
5	Frosinone	13	7	4	2	+13	+3.9	25
6	Juve Stabia	14	6	7	1	+7	+3.7	25
7	Virtus Entella	14	6	6	2	+5	-3.6	24
8	Sampdoria	14	6	4	4	+2	+3.6	22
9	Modena	14	6	3	5	+7	-0.9	21
10	Carrarese	14	5	6	3	+6	+1.6	21
11	Sudtirol	13	5	4	4	+4	-2.9	19
12	Avellino	14	5	4	5	-4	-8.1	19
13	Empoli	15	3	9	3	+4	+4.4	18
14	Cesena	14	5	3	6	-2	+4.5	18
15	Mantova	14	5	3	6	-6	+1.3	18
16	Reggiana	14	4	5	5	-3	-1.9	17
17	Bari	14	4	5	5	-3	-7.7	17
18	Padova	14	3	7	4	-1	-4.8	16
19	Pescara	14	3	5	6	-4	-3.8	14
20	Spezia	14	3	4	7	-8	-1.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	15	8	6	1	+11	+2.9	30
2	Monza	14	7	4	3	+7	+3.2	25
3	Venezia	14	6	6	2	+11	+12.3	24
4	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
5	Cesena	14	6	2	6	-3	+0.2	20
6	Catanzaro	14	5	4	5	+1	-0.8	19
7	Palermo	13	4	6	3	+5	+2.8	18
8	Sudtirol	15	3	9	3	-1	+0.5	18
9	Padova	14	5	3	6	-4	-1.0	18
10	Juve Stabia	14	3	6	5	-7	-0.6	15
11	Spezia	14	3	4	7	-4	+0.5	13
12	Empoli	13	4	1	8	-9	-3.3	13
13	Reggiana	14	3	3	8	-8	-2.9	12
14	Carrarese	14	2	5	7	-11	-10.4	11
15	Avellino	14	2	5	7	-12	-7.8	11
16	Bari	14	2	5	7	-12	-6.0	11
17	Mantova	14	2	3	9	-10	-2.2	9
18	Sampdoria	14	1	5	8	-10	-2.5	8
19	Pescara	14	1	5	8	-16	-2.6	8
20	Virtus Entella	14	0	4	10	-19	-7.7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.