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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Southampton

S T S T T

2–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 31%

35%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

65%

73%

Both score Ø 67%

65%

69%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

28 Shots 4

9 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 12. · Aston Villa 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	26	25	1	0	+46	76
2	Man City	26	17	3	6	+38	54
3	Leicester	26	15	5	6	+28	50
4	Chelsea	27	13	5	9	+8	44
5	Tottenham	27	11	7	9	+8	40
6	Sheffield United	26	10	9	7	+4	39
7	Man United	26	10	8	8	+9	38
8	Wolves	26	8	12	6	+3	36
9	Everton	26	10	6	10	-4	36
10	Arsenal	26	7	13	6	+2	34
11	Burnley	26	10	4	12	-9	34
12	Southampton	26	9	4	13	-16	31
13	Newcastle	26	8	7	11	-16	31
14	Crystal Palace	26	7	9	10	-9	30
15	Brighton	26	6	9	11	-7	27
16	Bournemouth	26	7	5	14	-14	26
17	Aston Villa	26	7	4	15	-16	25
18	West Ham	26	6	6	14	-15	24
19	Watford	26	5	9	12	-16	24
20	Norwich	26	4	6	16	-24	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	13	0	0	+26	39
2	Man City	13	9	2	2	+21	29
3	Leicester	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+13	26
5	Everton	13	7	3	3	+4	24
6	Man United	13	6	5	2	+12	23
7	Chelsea	14	6	3	5	+3	21
8	Arsenal	13	5	5	3	+4	20
9	Sheffield United	13	6	2	5	+3	20
10	Newcastle	13	5	5	3	+0	20
11	Burnley	13	6	1	6	-2	19
12	Brighton	13	4	6	3	+3	18
13	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+1	18
14	Aston Villa	13	5	2	6	-6	17
15	Crystal Palace	13	4	4	5	-3	16
16	Bournemouth	13	4	4	5	-4	16
17	Watford	13	3	5	5	-4	14
18	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-5	12
19	Norwich	13	3	3	7	-8	12
20	Southampton	13	3	2	8	-16	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Man City	13	8	1	4	+17	25
3	Leicester	13	7	2	4	+16	23
4	Chelsea	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Southampton	13	6	2	5	+0	20
6	Sheffield United	13	4	7	2	+1	19
7	Wolves	13	4	6	3	+2	18
8	Man United	13	4	3	6	-3	15
9	Burnley	13	4	3	6	-7	15
10	Arsenal	13	2	8	3	-2	14
11	Tottenham	14	3	5	6	-5	14
12	Crystal Palace	13	3	5	5	-6	14
13	Everton	13	3	3	7	-8	12
14	West Ham	13	3	3	7	-10	12
15	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-16	11
16	Bournemouth	13	3	1	9	-10	10
17	Watford	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Brighton	13	2	3	8	-10	9
19	Aston Villa	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Norwich	13	1	3	9	-16	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.