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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Porto

S T S S T

4–0

Full-time

Arouca

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,72 xG 0,17

57% Possession 43%

26 Shots 4

7 Shots on target 0

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 3

17 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 3. · Arouca 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+23	+16.8	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
3	Porto	6	5	0	1	+9	+9.1	15
4	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.9	13
5	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+5	+1.7	12
6	Santa Clara	6	4	0	2	+2	+3.2	12
7	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	+0.2	11
8	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	-2	+2.6	8
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-3	-0.3	8
10	Rio Ave	6	2	1	3	-3	-4.4	7
11	AVS	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.3	7
12	Gil Vicente	7	1	4	2	-5	-3.5	7
13	Arouca	6	2	0	4	-5	-6.2	6
14	Estoril	7	1	3	3	-6	-9.3	6
15	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.0	5
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-6.4	5
17	Nacional	7	1	2	4	-8	-1.0	5
18	Farense	6	0	0	6	-11	-9.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.8	12
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+7	+6.5	9
3	Porto	3	3	0	0	+6	+9.8	9
4	Famalicao	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.1	8
5	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
6	AVS	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.7	7
7	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.2	6
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-1	+1.4	6
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.6	5
10	Moreirense	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.7	5
11	Sp Braga	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.2	4
12	Casa Pia	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.4	4
13	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	4	1	1	2	-5	-6.6	4
15	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.6	3
16	Nacional	3	1	0	2	-6	-1.7	3
17	Boavista	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+16	+10.3	12
2	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.5	7
3	Guimaraes	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
4	Porto	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.8	6
5	Santa Clara	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.4	4
7	Benfica	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.1	4
8	Boavista	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.7	4
9	Casa Pia	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
10	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.6	3
11	Moreirense	4	1	0	3	-4	+1.9	3
12	Estoril	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.7	2
13	Nacional	4	0	2	2	-2	+0.6	2
14	Gil Vicente	4	0	2	2	-7	-5.0	2
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-2	-3.5	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-4	-5.2	0
17	Rio Ave	3	0	0	3	-5	-5.6	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.