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Primeira Liga

Referee: A Nobre

Arouca

T S T U S

3–1

Full-time

Tondela

T T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 26%

33%

18%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

67%

48%

Both score Ø 44%

55%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,4

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,9

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,60 xG 0,57

53% Possession 47%

16 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 11. · Tondela 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	34	28	4	2	+48	+40.1	88
2	Sp Lisbon	33	24	7	2	+62	+44.8	79
3	Benfica	33	22	11	0	+47	+39.3	77
4	Sp Braga	33	16	10	7	+28	+18.1	58
5	Famalicao	33	14	11	8	+12	+11.9	53
6	Gil Vicente	33	13	11	9	+12	+9.1	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	-12	-20.1	43
8	Guimaraes	33	12	6	15	-10	-6.7	42
9	Estoril	33	10	9	14	-1	-9.9	39
10	Alverca	33	10	9	14	-16	-0.9	39
11	Arouca	33	11	6	16	-19	-18.9	39
12	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	-9	+1.2	36
13	Rio Ave	33	8	11	14	-22	-16.7	35
14	Nacional	33	8	7	18	-10	-12.8	31
15	Estrela	33	6	11	16	-18	-11.0	29
16	Casa Pia	33	6	11	16	-26	-25.4	29
17	Tondela	33	6	10	17	-26	-11.4	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	-40	-30.8	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	3	0	+27	+21.7	45
2	Benfica	17	11	6	0	+28	+26.6	39
3	Sp Lisbon	16	12	2	2	+37	+27.8	38
4	Gil Vicente	17	9	3	5	+11	+6.4	30
5	Sp Braga	16	8	5	3	+16	+13.6	29
6	Famalicao	16	8	4	4	+14	+9.7	28
7	Guimaraes	17	8	4	5	+7	-0.4	28
8	Moreirense	17	8	3	6	-1	-9.0	27
9	Alverca	17	7	5	5	-5	+6.5	26
10	Estoril	16	6	5	5	+5	-5.2	23
11	Santa Clara	17	7	2	8	+0	+4.7	23
12	Arouca	16	6	4	6	-5	-7.0	22
13	Estrela	17	4	6	7	-3	+0.0	18
14	Nacional	16	5	2	9	-2	-3.7	17
15	Rio Ave	17	3	6	8	-12	-3.0	15
16	Casa Pia	16	2	8	6	-8	-11.2	14
17	Tondela	17	2	7	8	-8	-3.6	13
18	AVS	17	2	6	9	-12	-14.9	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	1	2	+21	+18.4	43
2	Sp Lisbon	17	12	5	0	+25	+17.0	41
3	Benfica	16	11	5	0	+19	+12.7	38
4	Sp Braga	17	8	5	4	+12	+4.5	29
5	Famalicao	17	6	7	4	-2	+2.3	25
6	Gil Vicente	16	4	8	4	+1	+2.7	20
7	Rio Ave	16	5	5	6	-10	-13.6	20
8	Arouca	17	5	2	10	-14	-11.8	17
9	Estoril	17	4	4	9	-6	-4.7	16
10	Moreirense	17	4	4	9	-11	-11.1	16
11	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-18	-7.8	15
12	Casa Pia	17	4	3	10	-18	-14.2	15
13	Nacional	17	3	5	9	-8	-9.1	14
14	Guimaraes	16	4	2	10	-17	-6.3	14
15	Santa Clara	17	2	7	8	-9	-3.5	13
16	Alverca	16	3	4	9	-11	-7.4	13
17	Estrela	16	2	5	9	-15	-11.1	11
18	AVS	17	1	6	10	-28	-16.0	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.