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Champions League
Referee: F Zwayer
Napoli
S S S S S
4–2
Full-time
Ajax
T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
3,8
4,3
Scored
3,2
2,2
Conceded
0,7
2,2
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+0,0
This season — Champions League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
5,0
4,7
Scored
4,3
2,0
Conceded
0,7
2,7
Goal diff per game
+3,7
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

45% Possession 55%
13 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
3 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

4. Oct -22 Ajax – Napoli 1–6

Match report

Napoli Ajax
1–0 H. Lozano ⚽
P. Zieliński
4′
2–0 G. Raspadori ⚽
K. Kvaratskhelia
16′
27′
🟨 Kenneth Taylor
33′
🟨 Jorge Sánchez
Half-time 2–0
T. Ndombélé 🔁
↦ A. Zambo Anguissa
49′
49′
⚽ D. Klaassen 2–1
C. Bassey
V. Osimhen 🔁
↦ G. Raspadori
50′
52′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
Tanguy Ndombélé ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
60′
61′
🟨 Jurriën Timber
3–1 K. Kvaratskhelia ⚽
62′
64′
🔁 F. Grillitsch
↦ K. Taylor
65′
🔁 Y. Baas
↦ J. Sánchez
65′
🔁 B. Brobbey
↦ M. Kudus
66′
🟨 Calvin Bassey
76′
🟨 Steven Bergwijn
E. Elmas 🔁
↦ K. Kvaratskhelia
77′
M. Politano 🔁
↦ H. Lozano
77′
83′
⚽ S. Bergwijn 3–2
84′
🔁 L. Ocampos
↦ S. Bergwijn
84′
🔁 Francisco Conceição
↦ S. Berghuis
Juan Jesus 🟨
87′
G. Gaetano 🔁
↦ P. Zieliński
89′
4–2 V. Osimhen ⚽
89′
Victor Osimhen 🟨
91′
Matteo Politano 🟨
92′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Napoli

4-3-3
1 A. Meret G
22 G. Di Lorenzo D
3 Kim Min-Jae D
5 Juan Jesus D
17 M. Olivera D
99 A. Zambo Anguissa M
68 S. Lobotka M
20 P. Zieliński M
11 H. Lozano F
81 G. Raspadori F
77 K. Kvaratskhelia F
Bench (12)
91 T. Ndombélé
9 V. Osimhen
7 E. Elmas
21 M. Politano
70 G. Gaetano
59 A. Zanoli
23 A. Zerbin
18 G. Simeone
30 S. Sirigu
6 Mário Rui
16 H. Idasiak
55 L. Østigård

Coach: L. Spalletti

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
19 J. Sánchez D
2 J. Timber D
17 D. Blind D
3 C. Bassey D
6 D. Klaassen M
4 E. Álvarez M
8 K. Taylor M
23 S. Berghuis F
20 M. Kudus F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (11)
21 F. Grillitsch
25 Y. Baas
9 B. Brobbey
11 L. Ocampos
35 Francisco Conceição
29 L. Magallán
18 L. Lucca
26 Y. Regeer
5 O. Wijndal
1 M. Stekelenburg
16 J. Gorter

Coach: A. Schreuder

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

F Zwayer · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.