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Eredivisie
Referee: B Nijhuis
AZ Alkmaar
U S S U S
2–1
Full-time
Ajax
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,3
3,2
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
0,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+2,5
This season — Eredivisie · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 84%
67%
100%
Points per game
2,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
1,8
3,5
Conceded
0,7
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

42% Possession 58%
13 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 3
5 Free kicks against 8
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 4. · Ajax 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 7 6 0 1 +18 18
2 Ajax 6 6 0 0 +18 18
3 Feyenoord 7 5 1 1 +11 16
4 AZ Alkmaar 6 4 2 0 +7 14
5 Twente 6 4 1 1 +8 13
6 Sparta Rotterdam 7 3 1 3 +1 10
7 Waalwijk 7 2 3 2 +5 9
8 Heerenveen 6 2 3 1 +0 9
9 Utrecht 7 2 3 2 -1 9
10 Excelsior 7 3 0 4 -8 9
11 Nijmegen 7 1 5 1 +2 8
12 Groningen 7 2 2 3 -5 8
13 Go Ahead Eagles 7 2 0 5 -5 6
14 Vitesse 7 1 2 4 -9 5
15 Volendam 7 1 2 4 -13 5
16 For Sittard 7 1 1 5 -8 4
17 Cambuur 7 1 1 5 -9 4
18 FC Emmen 7 1 1 5 -12 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Ajax
12′
M. Kudus 0–1
K. Taylor
26′
🟨 Kenneth Taylor
1–1 M. de Wit
40′
Miloš Kerkez 🟨
42′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 D. Klaassen
↦ K. Taylor
M. Dekker 🔁
↦ B. Martins Indi
47′
Jens Odgaard 🟨
49′
2–1 J. Odgaard
P. Hatzidiakos
51′
63′
🔁 B. Brobbey
↦ D. Rensch
77′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
81′
🔁 L. Lucca
↦ M. Kudus
82′
🔁 L. Ocampos
↦ S. Bergwijn
M. Lahdo 🔁
↦ J. Odgaard
85′
R. Bazoer 🔁
↦ M. de Wit
85′
Tijjani Reijnders 🟨
87′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
12 H. Verhulst G
3 P. Hatzidiakos D
31 S. Beukema D
4 B. Martins Indi D
5 M. Kerkez D
6 T. Reijnders M
8 J. Clasie M
10 D. de Wit M
2 Y. Sugawara F
7 J. Odgaard F
34 M. de Wit F
Bench (12)
22 M. Dekker
23 M. Lahdo
25 R. Bazoer
14 P. Koopmeiners
28 Z. Buurmeester
19 M. van Brederode
27 Z. Vanheusden
17 Y. Barası
13 S. Westerveld
1 P. Vindahl
32 F. de Jong
39 I. Griffith

Coach: P. Jansen

Ajax

4-2-3-1
22 R. Pasveer G
15 D. Rensch D
2 J. Timber D
3 C. Bassey D
17 D. Blind D
4 E. Álvarez M
8 K. Taylor M
10 D. Tadić M
23 S. Berghuis M
7 S. Bergwijn M
20 M. Kudus F
Bench (12)
6 D. Klaassen
9 B. Brobbey
18 L. Lucca
11 L. Ocampos
13 A. Kaplan
1 M. Stekelenburg
28 K. Fitz-Jim
25 Y. Baas
29 L. Magallán
26 Y. Regeer
16 J. Gorter
5 O. Wijndal

Coach: A. Schreuder

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
4,55
U
4,17
B
1,67
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,58
U2,5
2,33
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Nijhuis · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,7 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.