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Ligue 1
Referee: T Léonard
Rennes
S S T T T
1–2
Full-time
Brest
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rennes Brest
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
33%
83%
Points per game
1,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches
Win Ø 35%
29%
41%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
59%
65%
Both score Ø 53%
47%
59%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
1,4
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,1
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,46 xG 0,99
68% Possession 32%
22 Shots 10
9 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 8
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rennes 14. · Brest 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 18 14 4 0 +32 +30.8 46
2 Marseille 17 11 3 3 +19 +3.1 36
3 Lille 18 8 8 2 +11 +5.7 32
4 Monaco 18 9 4 5 +9 +19.0 31
5 Nice 18 8 6 4 +11 +10.9 30
6 Lyon 17 8 4 5 +7 +6.3 28
7 Lens 18 7 6 5 +4 +7.1 27
8 Toulouse 17 7 3 7 +0 +7.7 24
9 Strasbourg 17 6 5 6 +1 -5.2 23
10 Auxerre 17 6 4 7 -2 -9.9 22
11 Brest 17 7 1 9 -4 -10.0 22
12 Reims 17 5 5 7 -2 -6.9 20
13 Angers 17 5 4 8 -8 -3.4 19
14 Rennes 17 5 2 10 -2 +0.7 17
15 Nantes 17 3 7 7 -7 -8.6 16
16 St Etienne 17 5 1 11 -21 -17.9 16
17 Le Havre 17 4 0 13 -23 -14.6 12
18 Montpellier 18 3 3 12 -25 -14.5 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rennes Brest
27′
H. Magnetti 0–1
E. Fernandes
Ludovic Blas 🟨
41′
44′
🟨 Luc Zogbe
Half-time 0–1
A. Gouiri 🔁
↦ J. James
58′
A. Nagida 🔁
↦ L. Østigård
65′
69′
🔁 A. Sima
↦ Mama Baldé
71′
🟨 Mahdi Camara
73′
L. Ajorque 0–2
A. Sima
75′
🔁 R. Del Castillo
↦ K. Doumbia
1–2 L. Blas
A. Gouiri
77′
85′
🔁 Mathias Pereira Lage
↦ L. Ajorque
M. Meïté 🔁
↦ A. Truffert
88′
Seko Fofana 🟨
93′
96′
🟨 Abdallah Sima
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Rennes

3-4-2-1
1 B. Samba G
33 H. Hateboer D
55 L. Østigård D
4 C. Wooh D
22 L. Assignon M
17 J. James M
6 A. Matusiwa M
3 A. Truffert M
11 L. Blas F
75 S. Fofana F
9 A. Kalimuendo F
Bench (9)
10 A. Gouiri
18 A. Nagida
62 M. Meïté
48 A. Aït Boudlal
60 H. Do Marcolino
15 M. Faye
30 S. Mandanda
20 C. Gómez
32 N. Ahamada

Coach: J. Sampaoli

Brest

4-2-2-2
40 M. Bizot G
7 K. Lala D
5 B. Chardonnet D
3 A. Ndiaye D
12 L. Zogbé D
6 E. Fernandes M
8 H. Magnetti M
45 M. Camara M
9 K. Doumbia M
19 L. Ajorque F
14 Mama Baldé F
Bench (9)
17 A. Sima
10 R. Del Castillo
26 Mathias Pereira Lage
36 R. Le Guen
35 S. Diop
30 G. Coudert
37 P. Irie
32 I. Kanté
50 N. Jauny

Coach: E. Roy

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,01
U
3,36
B ✓
3,88
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,14
U2,5
1,70
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Léonard · 142 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.