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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Girona
T T T S S
1–2
Full-time
Sevilla
T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Sevilla
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
1,8
4,2
Scored
0,8
1,8
Conceded
1,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 37%
42%
32%
Points per game
1,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 45%
53%
37%
Both score Ø 48%
42%
53%
Average goals
2,7
2,6
Scored
1,4
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,1
-0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,22 xG 2,66
60% Possession 40%
7 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 6
0 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 4
0 Offside 3
6 Free kicks against 15
0 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Girona 8. · Sevilla 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Ath Madrid 19 13 5 1 +22 +17.4 44
2 Real Madrid 19 13 4 2 +24 +16.5 43
3 Barcelona 19 12 2 5 +29 +21.6 38
4 Ath Bilbao 19 10 6 3 +12 +7.7 36
5 Villarreal 19 8 6 5 +3 +10.5 30
6 Mallorca 19 9 3 7 -2 +0.4 30
7 Sociedad 19 8 4 7 +4 +3.1 28
8 Girona 19 8 4 7 +2 +5.3 28
9 Vallecano 19 6 7 6 +0 -2.9 25
10 Betis 19 6 7 6 -2 +5.2 25
11 Osasuna 19 6 7 6 -5 -8.3 25
12 Celta 19 7 3 9 -2 +7.4 24
13 Sevilla 19 6 5 8 -7 -5.3 23
14 Las Palmas 19 6 4 9 -5 -14.6 22
15 Getafe 19 4 7 8 -3 -3.7 19
16 Leganes 19 4 7 8 -11 -16.1 19
17 Espanol 20 5 4 11 -13 -15.9 19
18 Alaves 19 4 5 10 -10 -4.4 17
19 Valladolid 20 4 3 13 -25 -15.2 15
20 Valencia 19 2 7 10 -11 -8.9 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Girona Sevilla
3′
Isaac Romero
penalty missed
1–0 Arnau Martínez
V. Tsyhankov
36′
Half-time 1–0
55′
🟨 Adrià Pedrosa
59′
Saúl 1–1
65′
🟨 Isaac Romero
C. Stuani 🔁
↦ Abel Ruiz
68′
J. Solís 🔁
↦ Oriol Romeu
69′
D. van de Beek 🔁
↦ Y. Asprilla
69′
71′
🔁 S. Idumbo
↦ R. Vargas
71′
🔁 Kike Salas
↦ Adrià Pedrosa
76′
🟨 José Ángel Carmona
82′
🔁 C. Ejuke
↦ Isaac Romero
88′
D. Lukébakio 1–2
Saúl
Portu 🔁
↦ Bryan Gil
89′
93′
🟨 Saúl Ñíguez
93′
🔁 Juanlu Sánchez
↦ D. Lukébakio
94′
🔁 L. Agoumé
↦ D. Sow
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Girona

4-2-3-1
13 P. Gazzaniga G
4 Arnau Martínez D
5 David López D
18 L. Krejčí D
17 D. Blind D
14 Oriol Romeu M
23 Iván Martín M
8 V. Tsyhankov M
10 Y. Asprilla M
20 Bryan Gil M
9 Abel Ruiz F
Bench (10)
7 C. Stuani
22 J. Solís
6 D. van de Beek
24 Portu
27 G. Misehouy
1 Juan Carlos
16 Alejandro Francés
15 Juanpe
25 Pau López
28 Silvi

Coach: Míchel Sánchez

Sevilla

4-2-3-1
13 Ø. Nyland G
2 José Ángel Carmona D
22 L. Badé D
6 N. Gudelj D
3 Adrià Pedrosa D
12 A. Sambi Lokonga M
20 D. Sow M
11 D. Lukébakio M
17 Saúl M
5 R. Vargas M
7 Isaac Romero F
Bench (12)
27 S. Idumbo
4 Kike Salas
21 C. Ejuke
18 L. Agoumé
26 Juanlu Sánchez
42 Álvaro García
1 Álvaro Fernández
10 Suso
33 Matías Árbol
23 Marcão
14 Peque Fernández
8 Pedro Ortiz

Coach: García Pimienta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,94
U
3,55
B ✓
3,96
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,96
U2,5
1,85
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.