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Champions League
Referee: T Stieler
Lech Poznan
T S S S S
1–3
Full-time
FK Crvena Zvezda
T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan FK Crvena Zvezda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,2
3,7
Scored
2,7
2,5
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,5
3,5
Scored
4,0
3,0
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+3,5
+2,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

60% Possession 40%
11 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 11
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lech Poznan FK Crvena Zvezda
9′
⚽ R. Krunic 0–1
C. Ndiaye
Filip Jagiełło 🟨
19′
21′
🟨 Rade Krunić
1–1 M. Ishak ⚽
J. Moutinho
34′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 S. Babicka
↦ Milson
51′
⚽ R. Krunic 1–2
53′
ℹ️ Rade Krunić
VAR: Goal confirmed
F. Szymczak 🔁
↦ A. Gholizadeh
64′
P. Rodriguez 🔁
↦ L. Bengtsson
64′
T. Ouma 🔁
↦ F. Jagiello
71′
G. Thordarson 🔁
↦ A. Kozubal
71′
73′
⚽ Bruno Duarte 1–3
M. Ivanic
75′
🔁 P. Olayinka
↦ M. Ivanic
78′
🔁 A. Katai
↦ Bruno Duarte
78′
🔁 M. Arnautovic
↦ C. Ndiaye
R. Gumny 🔁
↦ J. Pereira
82′
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
41 B. Mrozek G
2 J. Pereira D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
16 A. Milic D
4 J. Moutinho D
43 A. Kozubal M
24 F. Jagiello M
8 A. Gholizadeh M
77 L. Palma M
14 L. Bengtsson M
9 M. Ishak F
Bench (12)
31 K. Bakowski
33 M. Pruchniewski
3 A. Douglas
6 T. Ouma
15 M. Gurgul
17 F. Szymczak
19 B. Fiabema
20 R. Gumny
23 G. Thordarson
27 W. Monka
56 K. Lisman
99 P. Rodriguez

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

FK Crvena Zvezda

4-2-3-1
1 Matheus G
66 Seol Young-Woo D
5 Rodrigo D
13 M. Veljkovic D
23 N. Tiknizyan D
33 R. Krunic M
21 T. Elsnik M
7 Milson M
17 Bruno Duarte M
4 M. Ivanic M
9 C. Ndiaye F
Bench (12)
18 O. Glazer
77 I. Gutesa
6 M. Bajo
10 A. Katai
14 P. Olayinka
22 V. Kostov
24 N. Stankovic
25 S. Lekovic
37 V. Lucic
44 V. Milosavljevic
80 S. Babicka
89 M. Arnautovic

Coach: Dejan Stankovic

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.