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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Chiffi

Milan

T S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Napoli

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

0,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 88%

75%

100%

Points per game

2,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 38%

25%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,8

2,3

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,75 xG 2,96

37% Possession 63%

6 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 6

6 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.0	12
2	Roma	5	4	0	1	+4	+1.4	12
3	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.7	11
4	Inter	5	3	0	2	+6	+5.3	9
5	Atalanta	5	2	3	0	+6	+2.7	9
6	Milan	4	3	0	1	+5	+5.2	9
7	Cremonese	5	2	3	0	+2	-2.5	9
8	Como	5	2	2	1	+2	+1.8	8
9	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+0	-3.1	7
10	Bologna	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.8	7
11	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-3	-1.1	7
12	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-3.5	6
13	Torino	4	1	1	2	-7	-2.3	4
14	Lazio	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.6	3
15	Fiorentina	5	0	3	2	-3	-1.7	3
16	Verona	5	0	3	2	-6	-0.7	3
17	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
18	Pisa	5	0	2	3	-3	-0.5	2
19	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.3	2
20	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-6	-4.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.3	7
2	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
3	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.5	6
4	Roma	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.0	6
5	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
6	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
7	Como	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.4	5
8	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
9	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
10	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
11	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+3	+3.1	3
12	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
13	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.3	2
14	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.8	1
17	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.4	1
18	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.9	1
19	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.2	1
20	Fiorentina	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.6	6
2	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
3	Roma	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
4	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.2	6
5	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
6	Cremonese	3	1	2	0	+1	-3.8	5
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
8	Inter	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.9	3
9	Como	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
10	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
11	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
12	Torino	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.1	3
13	Pisa	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
14	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
15	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
16	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
17	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
18	Verona	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.9	1
19	Sassuolo	2	0	0	2	-2	-3.0	0
20	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.