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Champions League
Referee: D Makkelie
Napoli
S S T S T
2–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,8
3,3
Scored
1,7
2,5
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
0%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,0
5,0
Scored
0,0
4,0
Conceded
2,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+3,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,88 xG 1,35
51% Possession 49%
12 Shots 8
3 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
7 Corners 2
1 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 9
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Napoli Sp Lisbon
1–0 R. Hojlund ⚽
K. De Bruyne
36′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 P. Goncalves
↦ Trincao
46′
🔁 L. Suarez
↦ G. Catamo
62′
⚽ L. Suarez 1–1
67′
🔁 Z. Debast
↦ E. Quaresma
67′
🔁 Alisson Santos
↦ F. Ioannidis
David Neres 🔁
↦ M. Politano
69′
N. Lang 🔁
↦ S. McTominay
69′
78′
🔁 H. Morita
↦ J. Simoes
2–1 R. Hojlund ⚽
K. De Bruyne
79′
B. Gilmour 🔁
↦ K. De Bruyne
81′
M. Olivera 🔁
↦ M. Gutierrez
81′
L. Lucca 🔁
↦ R. Hojlund
90′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Napoli

4-1-4-1
32 V. Milinkovic-Savic G
37 L. Spinazzola D
31 S. Beukema D
5 Juan Jesus D
3 M. Gutierrez D
68 S. Lobotka M
21 M. Politano M
99 F. Anguissa M
11 K. De Bruyne M
8 S. McTominay M
19 R. Hojlund F
Bench (10)
1 A. Meret
25 M. Ferrante
6 B. Gilmour
7 David Neres
17 M. Olivera
20 E. Elmas
26 A. Vergara
27 L. Lucca
69 G. Ambrosino
70 N. Lang

Coach: Antonio Conte

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 R. Silva G
22 I. Fresneda D
72 E. Quaresma D
25 G. Inacio D
20 M. Araujo D
42 M. Hjulmand M
52 J. Simoes M
7 G. Quenda M
17 Trincao M
10 G. Catamo M
89 F. Ioannidis F
Bench (12)
12 J. Virginia
2 Matheus Reis
5 H. Morita
6 Z. Debast
8 P. Goncalves
13 G. Vagiannidis
14 G. Kochorashvili
26 O. Diomande
27 Alisson Santos
28 R. Ribeiro
91 R. Mangas
97 L. Suarez

Coach: Rui Borges

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Makkelie · 193 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.