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Europa League
Referee: N Walsh
Qarabag
S T T T T
0–3
Full-time
Ajax
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Qarabag Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
1,5
2,5
Conceded
2,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/8 matches
Win Ø 38%
0%
75%
Points per game
0,0
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
100%
50%
Both score Ø 44%
50%
38%
Average goals
3,0
2,6
Scored
0,5
2,1
Conceded
2,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,09 xG 2,56
44% Possession 56%
2 Shots 14
1 Shots on target 10
1 Blocked shots 3
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 2
1 Offside 4
11 Free kicks against 21
6 Yellow cards 2
2 Red cards 0

Match report

Qarabag Ajax
Júlio Romão 🟥
15′
Elvin Cafarquliyev 🟨
16′
20′
🟨 Kenneth Taylor
Abbas Hüseynov 🟨
22′
36′
⚽ K. Taylor 0–1
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Kian Fitz-Jim
Yassine Benzia 🟨
50′
59′
🔁 A. Kaplan
↦ D. Rugani
59′
🔁 C. Akpom
↦ K. Taylor
59′
🔁 B. van den Boomen
↦ K. Fitz-Jim
Kevin Medina 🟨
73′
74′
⚽ W. Weghorst 0–2
T. Bayramov 🔁
↦ Leandro Andrade
75′
77′
⚽ C. Akpom 0–3
M. Godts
78′
🔁 A. Gaaei
↦ C. Rasmussen
Elvin Cafarquliyev 🟨
79′
Elvin Cafarquliyev 🟥
79′
Marko Janković 🟨
80′
Patrick Andrade 🔁
↦ Y. Benzia
81′
E. Addai 🔁
↦ Juninho
82′
A. Isaev 🔁
↦ M. Janković
84′
B. Mustafazadə 🔁
↦ A. Zoubir
84′
86′
🔁 J. Mokio
↦ W. Weghorst
Full-time 0–3

Line-ups

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 M. Kochalski G
30 A. Hüseynov D
55 B. Hüseynov D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cəfərquliyev D
6 Júlio Romão M
8 M. Janković M
15 Leandro Andrade M
7 Y. Benzia M
10 A. Zoubir M
18 Juninho F
Bench (11)
27 T. Bayramov
66 Patrick Andrade
11 E. Addai
24 A. Isaev
13 B. Mustafazadə
20 R. Almeyda
97 F. Buntić
90 N. Axundzadə
12 S. Məmmədzadə
21 O. Kashchuk
22 M. Qurbanlı

Coach: Q. Qurbanov

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
2 D. Rensch D
24 D. Rugani D
37 J. Šutalo D
4 J. Hato D
28 K. Fitz-Jim M
6 J. Henderson M
8 K. Taylor M
29 C. Rasmussen F
25 W. Weghorst F
11 M. Godts F
Bench (12)
13 A. Kaplan
10 C. Akpom
21 B. van den Boomen
3 A. Gaaei
31 J. Mokio
33 B. Tahirović
5 O. Wijndal
12 J. Gorter
49 J. Banel
40 D. Ramaj
9 B. Brobbey
20 B. Traoré

Coach: F. Farioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

N Walsh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.