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Champions League
Referee: U Schnyder
Arsenal
S S U S T
3–2
Full-time
Kairat Almaty
U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Kairat Almaty
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
50%
0%
Points per game
1,8
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,2
Scored
2,0
0,7
Conceded
1,2
2,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 7/15 matches
Win Ø 60%
100%
20%
Points per game
3,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 56%
71%
40%
Both score Ø 31%
29%
33%
Average goals
3,1
2,3
Scored
2,9
0,8
Conceded
0,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,6
-0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

4,06 xG 1,11
66% Possession 34%
25 Shots 4
11 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 0
0 Goalkeeper saves 7
11 Corners 0
2 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Arsenal Kairat Almaty
1–0 V. Gyokeres ⚽
K. Havertz
3′
5′
ℹ️ Jorginho
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Riccardo Calafiori 🟨
6′
7′
⚽ Jorginho 1–1
2–1 K. Havertz ⚽
B. White
15′
3–1 G. Martinelli ⚽
V. Gyokeres
36′
Gabriel Martinelli ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
38′
Half-time 3–1
P. Hincapie 🔁
↦ R. Calafiori
46′
M. Odegaard 🔁
↦ K. Havertz
46′
59′
🔁 V. Gromyko
↦ Edmilson
59′
🔁 Ricardinho
↦ E. Tapalov
69′
🟨 Jorginho
70′
🔁 D. Kasabulat
↦ D. Glazer
70′
🔁 L. Kurgin
↦ L. Mata
Gabriel Jesus 🔁
↦ V. Gyökeres
77′
B. Bailey-Joseph 🔁
↦ G. Martinelli
77′
79′
🔁 R. Bagdat
↦ Jorginho
Gabriel Jesus ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
88′
I. Ibrahim 🔁
↦ C. Norgaard
89′
90′
⚽ Ricardinho 3–2
V. Gromyko
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-3-3
13 K. Arrizabalaga G
4 B. White D
3 C. Mosquera D
33 R. Calafiori D
49 M. Lewis-Skelly D
29 K. Havertz M
16 C. Norgaard M
10 E. Eze M
20 N. Madueke F
14 V. Gyökeres F
11 G. Martinelli F
Bench (12)
35 T. Setford
78 J. Porter
5 P. Hincapie
6 Gabriel
7 B. Saka
8 M. Odegaard
9 Gabriel Jesus
19 L. Trossard
36 M. Zubimendi
72 I. Ibrahim
81 B. Bailey-Joseph
89 M. Salmon

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Kairat Almaty

3-4-3
77 T. Anarbekov G
25 A. Shirobokov D
14 A. Martynovich D
80 E. Sorokin D
20 E. Tapalov M
18 D. Glazer M
6 A. Sadybekov M
3 L. Mata M
24 A. Mrynskiy F
26 Edmilson F
7 Jorginho F
Bench (8)
41 D. Buch
82 S. Kalmurza
4 D. Kasabulat
5 L. Kurgin
33 J. Stanojev
55 V. Gromyko
89 R. Bagdat
99 Ricardinho

Coach: Rafael Urazbakhtin

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

U Schnyder · 155 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.