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Europa League
Referee: K Tohver
Ludogorets
S U S T U
2–0
Full-time
HJK Helsinki
S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ludogorets HJK Helsinki
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,8
1,8
Scored
1,8
0,7
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-0,5
This season — Europa League · 5/7 matches
Win Ø 42%
40%
43%
Points per game
1,6
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 37%
60%
14%
Both score Ø 55%
80%
29%
Average goals
3,4
1,9
Scored
1,8
0,9
Conceded
1,6
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,2
-0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%
24 Shots 6
6 Shots on target 1
8 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Oct -22 HJK Helsinki – Ludogorets 1–1

Match report

Ludogorets HJK Helsinki
33′
🟨 David Browne
1–0 D. Gruper ⚽
Rick
38′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Peltola
↦ D. Browne
Cicinho 🟨
47′
55′
🟨 Jukka Raitala
58′
🔁 C. Terho
↦ P. Soiri
59′
🔁 N. Boujellab
↦ S. Väänänen
2–0 Rick ⚽
B. Tekpetey
64′
Thiago 🔁
↦ M. Tissera
67′
70′
🔁 A. Olusanya
↦ S. Hostikka
70′
🔁 A. Tanaka
↦ L. Lingman
73′
🟨 Casper Terho
Pedro Naressi 🔁
↦ Show
77′
83′
🟨 Përparim Hetemaj
S. Delev 🔁
↦ B. Tekpetey
86′
Nonato 🔁
↦ J. Piotrowski
86′
93′
🟨 Jukka Raitala
93′
🟥 Jukka Raitala
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Ludogorets

4-2-3-1
1 S. Padt G
4 Cicinho D
24 O. Verdon D
3 A. Nedyalkov D
14 D. Gruper D
23 Show M
6 J. Piotrowski M
37 B. Tekpetey M
95 Cauly M
73 Rick M
10 M. Tissera F
Bench (12)
9 Thiago
30 Pedro Naressi
90 S. Delev
20 Nonato
82 I. Yordanov
12 S. Sluga
5 G. Terziev
11 K. Despodov
32 I. Plastun
8 Claude Gonçalves
16 A. Witry
67 D. Hristov

Coach: A. Šimundža

HJK Helsinki

3-4-2-1
1 C. Hazard G
15 M. Tenho D
5 A. Hoskonen D
22 J. Raitala D
23 P. Soiri M
8 L. Lingman M
21 S. Väänänen M
24 D. Browne M
7 S. Hostikka F
56 P. Hetemaj F
77 M. Abubakari F
Bench (9)
14 M. Peltola
19 C. Terho
10 N. Boujellab
29 A. Olusanya
37 A. Tanaka
18 B. Radulović
17 M. Martić
58 J. Yli-Kokko
12 J. Tånnander

Coach: T. Koskela

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

K Tohver · 17 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
19,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.