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Europa League
Referee: P Raczkowski
AEK Larnaca
S S T S T
1–2
Full-time
Fenerbahce
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Larnaca Fenerbahce
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,7
3,8
Scored
1,5
2,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,5
This season — Europa League · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 64%
57%
71%
Points per game
1,9
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
71%
57%
Both score Ø 57%
57%
57%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,6
2,3
Conceded
1,1
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

40% Possession 60%
6 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 4
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 8
4 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 19
7 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

6. Oct -22 Fenerbahce – AEK Larnaca 2–0

Match report

AEK Larnaca Fenerbahce
16′
⚽ João Pedro 0–1
E. Alioski
33′
🟨 Arda Güler
Ángel García 🟨
38′
Rafail Mamas 🟨
41′
43′
🟨 Lincoln
Half-time 0–1
Ivan Tričkovski 🟨
49′
Omri Altman ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
50′
1–1 I. Trichkovski ⚽
52′
G. Naoum 🔁
↦ R. Mamas
64′
67′
🟨 Serdar Aziz
68′
🔁 B. Osayi-Samuel
↦ E. Alioski
69′
🔁 E. Valencia
↦ João Pedro
69′
🔁 M. Batshuayi-Atunga
↦ A. Güler
V. Olatunji 🔁
↦ O. Altman
75′
Pere Pons 🔁
↦ Gus Ledes
75′
Rafael Lopes 🔁
↦ I. Trichkovski
75′
76′
🔁 Miguel Crespo
↦ Lincoln
80′
⚽ M. Batshuayi-Atunga 1–2
Mikel González 🔁
↦ Oier
82′
Ángel García 🟨
84′
Ángel García 🟥
84′
Victor Olatunji 🟨
88′
88′
🟨 Gustavo Henrique
92′
🔁 İ. Kahveci
↦ D. Rossi
Imad Faraj 🟨
95′
Pere Pons 🟨
95′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca

4-3-3
1 K. Pirić G
16 R. Rosales D
15 H. Miličević D
4 N. Tomović D
14 Ángel García D
6 Oier M
7 Gus Ledes M
66 R. Mamas M
11 I. Faraj F
10 I. Trichkovski F
51 O. Altman F
Bench (10)
29 G. Naoum
19 V. Olatunji
17 Pere Pons
12 Rafael Lopes
3 Mikel González
24 K. Christoforou
21 N. Englezou
38 I. Toumpas
30 H. Andreou
25 M. Gordić

Coach: José Luis Oltra

Fenerbahce

3-5-2
1 A. Bayındır G
4 S. Aziz D
2 Gustavo Henrique D
41 A. Szalai D
7 F. Kadıoğlu M
10 A. Güler M
80 İ. Yüksek M
18 Lincoln M
6 E. Alioski M
20 João Pedro F
9 D. Rossi F
Bench (9)
21 B. Osayi-Samuel
13 E. Valencia
23 M. Batshuayi-Atunga
27 Miguel Crespo
17 İ. Kahveci
70 İ. Eğribayat
54 E. Çetin
94 Y. Demir
99 E. Mor

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

P Raczkowski · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,26 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.