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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Man United

S S U S U

3–0

Full-time

Leicester

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Leicester

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 23/22 matches

Win Ø 47%

61%

32%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

61%

64%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,9

3,4

Scored

1,7

1,6

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

4,47 xG 1,63

57% Possession 43%

26 Shots 19

8 Shots on target 3

9 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Leicester 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	23	17	3	3	+28	+4.3	54
2	Man City	24	16	4	4	+36	+8.1	52
3	Man United	23	14	4	5	+10	+0.1	46
4	Newcastle	23	10	11	2	+20	+0.9	41
5	Tottenham	23	12	3	8	+7	-1.8	39
6	Fulham	24	11	5	8	+5	-1.6	38
7	Brighton	22	10	5	7	+10	+5.8	35
8	Liverpool	22	10	5	7	+10	+1.5	35
9	Brentford	23	8	11	4	+7	+1.7	35
10	Chelsea	23	8	7	8	+0	+1.8	31
11	Aston Villa	23	8	4	11	-10	-5.9	28
12	Crystal Palace	23	6	8	9	-10	-4.4	26
13	Nott'm Forest	23	6	7	10	-20	-2.3	25
14	Leicester	22	7	3	12	-2	+0.0	24
15	Wolves	23	6	5	12	-15	-2.0	23
16	Everton	23	5	6	12	-13	-2.0	21
17	Bournemouth	23	5	6	12	-23	-1.8	21
18	West Ham	22	5	5	12	-8	+1.9	20
19	Leeds	23	4	7	12	-11	-1.1	19
20	Southampton	23	5	3	15	-21	-3.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	+6.6	31
2	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+13	+2.3	26
3	Man United	11	8	2	1	+13	+2.1	26
4	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+16	+1.7	24
5	Brentford	12	6	5	1	+13	+1.3	23
6	Newcastle	12	6	5	1	+11	+0.2	23
7	Tottenham	11	7	0	4	+7	+0.1	21
8	Fulham	12	6	3	3	+4	+1.0	21
9	Nott'm Forest	12	5	4	3	+2	-2.0	19
10	Chelsea	11	5	3	3	+5	+1.7	18
11	Brighton	11	5	2	4	+6	+3.2	17
12	Aston Villa	12	5	2	5	+0	-3.6	17
13	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-5	-3.9	16
14	West Ham	11	4	2	5	-1	+1.9	14
15	Everton	12	4	2	6	-3	+1.7	14
16	Wolves	12	4	2	6	-6	+0.3	14
17	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-1	+0.8	13
18	Bournemouth	11	3	4	4	-1	-0.3	13
19	Leicester	11	3	3	5	+2	-0.8	12
20	Southampton	11	1	3	7	-9	-0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	12	9	1	2	+15	+2.0	28
2	Man City	12	6	3	3	+8	+1.5	21
3	Man United	12	6	2	4	-3	-2.0	20
4	Newcastle	11	4	6	1	+9	+0.7	18
5	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+4	+2.6	18
6	Tottenham	12	5	3	4	+0	-2.0	18
7	Fulham	12	5	2	5	+1	-2.6	17
8	Chelsea	12	3	4	5	-5	+0.1	13
9	Leicester	11	4	0	7	-4	+0.9	12
10	Brentford	11	2	6	3	-6	+0.4	12
11	Southampton	12	4	0	8	-12	-2.5	12
12	Liverpool	11	3	2	6	-6	-0.2	11
13	Aston Villa	11	3	2	6	-10	-2.3	11
14	Crystal Palace	11	2	4	5	-5	-0.5	10
15	Wolves	11	2	3	6	-9	-2.3	9
16	Bournemouth	12	2	2	8	-22	-1.5	8
17	Everton	11	1	4	6	-10	-3.7	7
18	West Ham	11	1	3	7	-7	+0.0	6
19	Leeds	12	1	3	8	-10	-1.8	6
20	Nott'm Forest	11	1	3	7	-22	-0.4	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.