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Europa League
Referee: Antonio Mateu
Arsenal
S S S U S
1–1
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 83%
83%
83%
Points per game
2,7
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
2,8
2,5
Conceded
1,0
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/3 matches
Win Ø 52%
71%
33%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
43%
67%
Both score Ø 48%
29%
67%
Average goals
2,1
3,3
Scored
1,4
2,3
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,65 xG 1,26
53% Possession 47%
13 Shots 15
9 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 7
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
5 Corners 7
5 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

9. Mar -23 Sp Lisbon – Arsenal 2–2

Match report

Arsenal Sp Lisbon
B. White 🔁
↦ T. Tomiyasu
9′
1–0 G. Xhaka ⚽
19′
R. Holding 🔁
↦ W. Saliba
21′
Fábio Vieira 🟨
24′
Half-time 1–0
L. Trossard 🔁
↦ Gabriel Jesus
46′
Granit Xhaka 🟨
47′
53′
🟨 Manuel Ugarte
62′
⚽ Pote 1–1
Paulinho
T. Partey 🔁
↦ Jorginho
65′
B. Saka 🔁
↦ R. Nelson
66′
Rob Holding 🟨
71′
90′
🔁 Youssef Chermiti
↦ Paulinho
94′
🔁 Dário Essugo
↦ Pote
94′
🔁 Nuno Santos
↦ Matheus Reis
M. Ødegaard 🔁
↦ Fábio Vieira
101′
105′
🔁 Arthur Gomes
↦ Trincão
118′
🟨 Manuel Ugarte
118′
🟨 Ousmane Diomande
118′
🟥 Manuel Ugarte
119′
🔁 M. Tanlongo
↦ M. Edwards
121′
⚽ J. St. Juste 1–2
2–2 M. Ødegaard ⚽
122′
123′
⚽ Ricardo Esgaio 2–3
3–3 B. Saka ⚽
124′
125′
⚽ Gonçalo Inácio 3–4
4–4 L. Trossard ⚽
126′
127′
⚽ Arthur Gomes 4–5
Gabriel Martinelli ❌
penalty missed
128′
129′
⚽ Nuno Santos 4–6
Full-time 4–6

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-3-3
1 A. Ramsdale G
18 T. Tomiyasu D
12 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
35 O. Zinchenko D
21 Fábio Vieira M
20 Jorginho M
34 G. Xhaka M
24 R. Nelson F
9 Gabriel Jesus F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (11)
4 B. White
16 R. Holding
19 L. Trossard
5 T. Partey
7 B. Saka
8 M. Ødegaard
10 E. Smith Rowe
3 K. Tierney
15 J. Kiwior
30 M. Turner
56 J. Hillson

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Sp Lisbon

3-4-3
1 Adán G
3 J. St. Juste D
26 O. Diomande D
25 Gonçalo Inácio D
47 Ricardo Esgaio M
15 M. Ugarte M
28 Pote M
2 Matheus Reis M
10 M. Edwards F
20 Paulinho F
17 Trincão F
Bench (12)
79 Youssef Chermiti
84 Dário Essugo
11 Nuno Santos
33 Arthur Gomes
32 M. Tanlongo
13 Luís Carlos
16 Rochinha
6 S. Alexandropoulos
82 Mateus Fernandes
18 I. Fatawu
12 F. Israel
77 Jovane Cabral

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Antonio Mateu · 160 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.