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Europa League
Referee: Manfredas Lukjancukas
Malmo FF
S U U S T
1–2
Full-time
Ludogorets
S U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Malmo FF Ludogorets
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,7
2,5
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
2,5
2,5
Conceded
0,0
1,5
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,65 xG 2,92
60% Possession 40%
10 Shots 21
5 Shots on target 10
0 Blocked shots 7
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 3
0 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Malmo FF Ludogorets
6′
ℹ️ Edvin Kurtulus
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Busanello 🟨
8′
8′
⚽ P. Stanic 0–1
23′
⚽ E. Bile 0–2
Adrian Skogmar 🟨
43′
Half-time 0–2
Anders Christiansen 🟨
51′
L. Johnsen 🔁
↦ A. Christiansen
60′
61′
🟨 Son
63′
🔁 M. Machado
↦ E. Bile
63′
🔁 F. Kaloc
↦ P. Stanic
S. Holmquist 🔁
↦ A. Skogmar
76′
T. Ali 🔁
↦ S. Haksabanovic
76′
1–2 L. Johnsen ⚽
T. Ali
78′
81′
🔁 S. Ivanov
↦ Erick Marcus
88′
🟨 Caio Vidal
88′
🔁 I. Chochev
↦ D. Duarte
88′
🔁 O. Verdon
↦ D. Almeida
91′
🟨 Pedro Naressi
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Malmo FF

4-4-1-1
30 R. Olsen G
17 J. Stryger D
18 P. Jansson D
19 C. Rosler D
25 Busanello D
38 H. Bolin M
7 O. Rosengren M
37 A. Skogmar M
29 S. Haksabanovic M
10 A. Christiansen F
32 D. T. Gudjohnsen F
Bench (12)
33 M. Ellborg
2 J. Karlsson
5 A. Djuric
6 O. Lewicki
11 E. Ekong
13 M. Olsson
15 S. Soumah
16 O. Berg
21 S. Holmquist
22 T. Ali
23 L. Johnsen
40 K. Busuladzic

Coach: Henrik Per-Erik Rydström

Ludogorets

1 S. Padt G
2 J. Andersson D
15 E. Kurtulus D
4 D. Almeida D
17 Son D
23 D. Duarte M
30 Pedro Naressi M
14 P. Stanic M
77 Erick Marcus F
29 E. Bile F
11 Caio Vidal F
Bench (12)
39 H. Bonmann
67 D. Hristov
10 M. Machado
18 I. Chochev
24 O. Verdon
26 F. Kaloc
37 B. Tekpetey
40 A. Marinov
42 S. Shishkov
80 M. Stefanov
90 R. Ivanov
99 S. Ivanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.