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Europa League
Referee: Orel Grinfeeld
Midtjylland
S S T S S
2–0
Full-time
Sturm Graz
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Midtjylland Sturm Graz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
83%
67%
Points per game
2,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
2,3
1,7
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,56 xG 0,91
53% Possession 47%
7 Shots 11
5 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 3
5 Offside 0
16 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. Nov -22 Midtjylland – Sturm Graz 2–0 8. Sep -22 Sturm Graz – Midtjylland 1–0

Match report

Midtjylland Sturm Graz
Júnior Brumado 🟨
3′
0–1 O. Christensen ⚽
own goal
7′
Franculino Djú ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
8′
Franculino Djú 🟨
24′
Philip Billing 🟨
45′
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 J. Hodl
↦ F. Rozga
48′
🟨 Maurice Malone
59′
🔁 L. Grgic
↦ M. Malone
A. Simsir 🔁
↦ Cho Gue-Sung
60′
A. Gabriel 🔁
↦ K. Mbabu
69′
E. Chilufya 🔁
↦ Junior Brumado
69′
71′
🟨 Emanuel Aiwu
73′
🔁 S. Hierlander
↦ T. Oermann
73′
🔁 B. Beganovic
↦ S. Jatta
84′
🔁 J. Beck
↦ T. Chukwuani
V. Byskov 🔁
↦ Franculino
88′
1–1 O. Diao ⚽
A. Simsir
89′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Midtjylland

4-3-1-2
16 E. Olafsson G
43 K. Mbabu D
4 O. Diao D
3 Lee Han-Beom D
22 M. Bech Sorensen D
8 P. Billing M
19 P. Bravo M
21 D. Castillo M
10 Cho Gue-Sung M
74 Junior Brumado F
7 Franculino F
Bench (11)
1 J. Lossl
60 M. Ugboh
13 A. Gabriel
14 E. Chilufya
20 V. Byskov
29 Paulinho
33 A. Djabi
35 B. Konteh Krubally
55 V. Bak
58 A. Simsir
90 F. Etim

Coach: Mike Tullberg

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1
1 O. Christensen G
5 T. Oermann D
47 E. Aiwu D
24 D. Lavalee D
17 E. Karic D
4 J. Gorenc Stankovic M
21 T. Chukwuani M
19 T. Horvat M
20 S. Jatta M
8 F. Rozga
77 M. Malone F
Bench (11)
32 C. Wiener-Pucher
40 M. Bignetti
2 J. Mitchell
22 J. Beck
25 S. Hierlander
26 B. Beganovic
27 G. Haider
35 N. Geyrhofer
38 L. Grgic
39 L. Weinhandl
43 J. Hodl

Coach: Jürgen Säumel

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.