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Conference League
Referee: R Obrenović
Fiorentina
S S U S U
2–3
Full-time
Lech Poznan
S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lech Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
17%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,5
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
0,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 13/17 matches
Win Ø 62%
77%
47%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
77%
41%
Both score Ø 51%
54%
47%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
2,5
1,9
Conceded
0,8
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,6
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,65 xG 2,20
49% Possession 51%
17 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 2
1 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 15
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

13. Apr -23 Lech Poznan – Fiorentina 1–4

Match report

Fiorentina Lech Poznan
9′
⚽ Afonso Sousa 0–1
17′
🟨 Artur Sobiech
Cristiano Biraghi 🟨
19′
23′
🟨 Alan Czerwiński
31′
🔁 Joel Pereira
↦ A. Czerwiński
Nikola Milenković 🟨
35′
Half-time 0–1
L. Martínez 🔁
↦ N. Milenković
46′
A. Terzić 🔁
↦ C. Biraghi
54′
62′
ℹ️ Artur Sobiech
VAR: Penalty confirmed
Aleksa Terzić 🟨
63′
65′
⚽ K. Velde 0–2
Lorenzo Venuti 🟨
69′
69′
⚽ A. Sobiech 0–3
J. Karlström
G. Castrovilli 🔁
↦ G. Bonaventura
70′
Arthur Cabral 🔁
↦ L. Jović
70′
1–3 R. Sottil ⚽
78′
79′
🔁 M. Ishak
↦ A. Sobiech
80′
🔁 A. Ba Loua
↦ K. Velde
80′
🔁 F. Marchwiński
↦ Afonso Sousa
82′
🔁 N. Kvekveskiri
↦ R. Murawski
83′
🟨 Nika Kvekveskiri
C. Kouamé 🔁
↦ R. Sottil
86′
88′
🟨 Michał Skóraś
2–3 G. Castrovilli ⚽
N. González
92′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-3-3
1 P. Terracciano G
23 L. Venuti D
4 N. Milenković D
98 Igor D
3 C. Biraghi D
5 G. Bonaventura M
38 R. Mandragora M
72 A. Barák M
22 N. González F
7 L. Jović F
33 R. Sottil F
Bench (12)
28 L. Martínez
15 A. Terzić
10 G. Castrovilli
9 Arthur Cabral
99 C. Kouamé
16 L. Ranieri
2 Dodô
8 R. Saponara
42 A. Bianco
32 A. Duncan
31 M. Cerofolini
51 T. Vannucchi

Coach: V. Italiano

Lech Poznan

4-2-3-1
35 F. Bednarek G
44 A. Czerwiński D
25 F. Dagerstål D
16 A. Milić D
5 Pedro Rebocho D
22 R. Murawski M
6 J. Karlström M
21 M. Skóraś M
7 Afonso Sousa M
23 K. Velde M
90 A. Sobiech F
Bench (12)
2 Joel Pereira
9 M. Ishak
50 A. Ba Loua
11 F. Marchwiński
30 N. Kvekveskiri
14 G. Tsitaishvili
24 João Amaral
3 B. Douglas
77 D. Holec
37 Ľ. Šatka
15 M. Gurgul
33 M. Mędrala

Coach: J. van den Brom

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Obrenović · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.