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Conference League
Referee: Sander van der Eijk
Mainz
S U S T T
4–1
Full-time
Rosenborg
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Rosenborg
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,7
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 1/5 matches
Win Ø 40%
0%
80%
Points per game
0,0
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
100%
40%
Both score Ø 60%
100%
20%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
1,0
2,0
Conceded
2,0
0,2
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

52% Possession 48%
22 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
9 Corners 2
6 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

21. Aug -25 Rosenborg – Mainz 2–1

Match report

Mainz Rosenborg
1–0 S. Bell ⚽
28′
34′
⚽ D. Islamovic 1–1
2–1 Lee Jae-Sung ⚽
A. Caci
43′
3–1 N. Weiper ⚽
Lee Jae-Sung
44′
Half-time 3–1
J. Reitan-Sunde 🔁
↦ I. Fossum
46′
53′
🟨 Santeri Väänänen
4–1 N. Amiri ⚽
58′
E. K. Ceide 🔁
↦ O. Saeter
61′
71′
🔁 A. Sieb
↦ N. Weiper
71′
🔁 S. Widmer
↦ P. Mwene
Paul Nebel 🟨
72′
80′
🔁 N. Veratschnig
↦ A. Caci
90′
🔁 L. Maloney
↦ Lee Jae-Sung
90′
🔁 S. Kawasaki
↦ N. Amiri
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Mainz

3-4-3
1 S. Tangvik
16 A. F. Witry
38 M. K. Ceide
21 T. Nemcik
19 A. Pereira
6 S. Vaananen
10 O. Selnaes
8 I. Fossum
7 S. Nordli
39 D. Islamovic
9 O. Saeter
Bench (12)
12 R. Sandberg
24 H. Sorum
2 E. Reitan
4 L. Racic
5 M. Zeidan
15 J. Mortensen
18 N. Holm
23 U. Jenssen
35 E. K. Ceide
45 J. Reitan-Sunde
50 H. Volden
56 I. Holmen

Coach: Bo Bjørnholt Henriksen

Rosenborg

4-3-3
27 R. Zentner
21 D. da Costa
16 S. Bell
31 D. Kohr
19 A. Caci
6 K. Sano
10 N. Amiri
2 P. Mwene
8 P. Nebel
44 N. Weiper
7 Lee Jae-Sung
Bench (12)
1 L. Riess
33 D. Batz
5 M. Leitsch
9 A. Nordin
11 A. Sieb
15 L. Maloney
22 N. Veratschnig
24 S. Kawasaki
25 A. Hanche-Olsen
30 S. Widmer
37 B. Bobzien
48 K. Potulski

Coach: Alfred Johansson

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Sander van der Eijk · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.