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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Burnley

T T S T U

0–3

Full-time

Liverpool

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Liverpool

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,0

3,2

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,3

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,3

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,7

4,0

Scored

1,7

3,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

36% Possession 64%

7 Shots 15

2 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 6

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 16

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 10. · Liverpool 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	West Ham	4	2	1	1	-1	7
6	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+0	6
7	Man United	4	1	2	1	+3	5
8	Sheffield United	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Chelsea	4	1	2	1	-3	5
10	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+2	4
11	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Everton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-3	4
17	Wolves	3	0	3	0	+0	3
18	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-2	3
19	Norwich	4	1	0	3	-4	3
20	Watford	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Man City	2	1	1	0	+4	4
3	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+2	4
4	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Man United	2	1	0	1	+3	3
6	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-3	3
14	Chelsea	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Watford	2	0	0	2	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Brighton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
8	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Sheffield United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Man United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Aston Villa	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.