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Conference League
Referee: V Shimusik
Lugano
S S T U S
1–0
Full-time
Dukagjini
S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Dukagjini
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 54%
33%
75%
Average goals
2,3
4,0
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
0,7
2,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

72% Possession 28%
24 Shots 12
7 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 3
5 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Lugano Dukagjini
Kevin Behrens 🟨
-5′
Mattia Zanotti 🟨
21′
1–0 R. Steffen ⚽
K. Behrens
31′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 G. Elezaj
↦ I. Zulfiu
49′
🟨 Elton Basriu
D. Moncada 🔁
↦ E. Alioski
69′
69′
🔁 M. Maliqi
↦ A. Merlaku
80′
🟨 Granit Elezaj
J. Bichsel 🔁
↦ K. Behrens
80′
A. Kendouci 🔁
↦ D. Dos Santos
80′
81′
🔁 A. Rexhaj
↦ K. Gashi
88′
🟥 Arvanit Rexhaj
E. Pihlstrom 🔁
↦ Y. Cimignani
89′
89′
🔁 A. Bytyqi
↦ J. Stevenson
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Lugano

3-4-2-1
16 D. von Ballmoos G
46 M. Zanotti D
17 L. Mai D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
21 Y. Cimignani M
25 U. Bislimi M
8 A. Grgic M
7 E. Alioski M
11 R. Steffen F
27 D. Dos Santos F
91 K. Behrens F
Bench (10)
28 F. Gebhardt
39 C. Ndiaye
23 G. Ajdin
22 B. D. Castro Espinosa
4 D. Kelvin
24 E. Pihlstrom
30 D. Moncada
18 J. Bichsel
14 A. Kendouci
32 N. Puddu

Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

Dukagjini

4-4-2
1 E. Lekaj
77 Vitor Hugo
5 E. Basri
14 E. Sinani
44 T. Bardhoku D
23 I. Zulfiu M
47 D. Isufi
8 K. Gashi M
10 A. Merlaku
17 M. Pefqeli F
99 J. Stevenson F
Bench (12)
16 K. Haxhihamza
22 A. Bytyqi
27 V. Hoti
9 K. Thaci
33 Luan
7 G. Elezaj
3 M. Zenunaj
98 M. Maliqi
66 E. Sylejmani
6 A. Rexhaj
2 D. Hyseni
88 E. Krasniqi

Coach: Armend Dallku

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.