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Super League

Referee: L Cibelli

Thun

S S T T S

0–1

Full-time

Lugano

T U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Thun Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 61%

73%

48%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

79%

45%

Both score Ø 69%

73%

64%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,76 xG 2,48

45% Possession 55%

13 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Thun 1. · Lugano 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	33	24	2	7	+38	+7.3	74
2	St. Gallen	33	17	9	7	+24	+11.4	60
3	Lugano	33	16	9	8	+12	-2.1	57
4	Basel	33	15	8	10	+6	+10.4	53
5	Sion	33	13	13	7	+16	+15.0	52
6	Young Boys	33	13	9	11	+5	-2.2	48
7	Luzern	34	11	10	13	+4	+2.5	43
8	Lausanne	34	11	9	14	-7	+1.7	42
9	Servette	33	9	13	11	+0	+6.6	40
10	Zurich	34	10	4	20	-21	-9.2	34
11	Grasshoppers	34	6	9	19	-26	-19.1	27
12	Winterthur	33	4	7	22	-51	-22.3	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	17	12	2	3	+22	+4.0	38
2	Lugano	16	10	3	3	+12	-0.8	33
3	St. Gallen	17	10	2	5	+13	+13.8	32
4	Sion	17	8	6	3	+13	+8.1	30
5	Young Boys	16	8	4	4	+16	+9.8	28
6	Basel	16	7	6	3	+10	+17.6	27
7	Lausanne	17	6	5	6	+4	+10.7	23
8	Servette	17	5	7	5	+4	+4.0	22
9	Zurich	17	6	1	10	-6	-0.3	19
10	Luzern	17	4	6	7	+3	+4.9	18
11	Grasshoppers	17	3	5	9	-7	-7.0	14
12	Winterthur	16	2	4	10	-18	-3.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	16	12	0	4	+16	+3.4	36
2	St. Gallen	16	7	7	2	+11	-2.4	28
3	Basel	17	8	2	7	-4	-7.2	26
4	Luzern	17	7	4	6	+1	-2.4	25
5	Lugano	17	6	6	5	+0	-1.3	24
6	Sion	16	5	7	4	+3	+6.9	22
7	Young Boys	17	5	5	7	-11	-12.0	20
8	Lausanne	17	5	4	8	-11	-9.0	19
9	Servette	16	4	6	6	-4	+2.6	18
10	Zurich	17	4	3	10	-15	-8.9	15
11	Grasshoppers	17	3	4	10	-19	-12.1	13
12	Winterthur	17	2	3	12	-33	-18.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.