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Premier League
Referee: Martin Atkinson
Swansea
U S U
2–1
Full-time
Man United
S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Man United
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
33%
0%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
2,7
0,7
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,7
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
33%
0%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
2,7
0,7
Scored
1,7
0,7
Conceded
1,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%
9 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 1
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
0 Corners 1
3 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Swansea 8. · Man United 4. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 4 4 0 0 +10 12
2 Crystal Palace 4 3 0 1 +3 9
3 Leicester 4 2 2 0 +3 8
4 Man United 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Arsenal 4 2 1 1 +0 7
6 Liverpool 4 2 1 1 -1 7
7 West Ham 4 2 0 2 +3 6
8 Swansea 3 1 2 0 +2 5
9 Everton 4 1 2 1 +1 5
10 Southampton 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Bournemouth 4 1 1 2 -1 4
12 Aston Villa 4 1 1 2 -1 4
13 Chelsea 4 1 1 2 -3 4
14 Norwich 4 1 1 2 -3 4
15 West Brom 4 1 1 2 -3 4
16 Tottenham 4 0 3 1 -1 3
17 Watford 4 0 3 1 -2 3
18 Stoke 4 0 2 2 -2 2
19 Newcastle 4 0 2 2 -3 2
20 Sunderland 4 0 2 2 -4 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Swansea Man United
38′
🟨 Morgan Schneiderlin
41′
🟨 Memphis Depay
Wayne Routledge 🟨
43′
Half-time 0–1
48′
⚽ Mata 0–1
L. Shaw
Sung-Yong Ki 🔁
↦ W. Routledge
58′
1–1 A. Ayew ⚽
G. Sigurðsson
61′
2–1 B. Gomis ⚽
A. Ayew
66′
70′
🔁 M. Carrick
↦ M. Schneiderlin
70′
🔁 A. Young
↦ Mata
77′
🔁 M. Fellaini
↦ Ander Herrera
Jonjo Shelvey 🟨
80′
Éder 🔁
↦ B. Gomis
81′
K. Bartley 🔁
↦ J. Shelvey
89′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Swansea

1 Ł. Fabiański G
26 K. Naughton D
3 N. Taylor D
6 A. Williams D
33 F. Fernández D
15 W. Routledge M
24 J. Cork M
8 J. Shelvey M
23 G. Sigurðsson M
18 B. Gomis F
10 A. Ayew M
Bench (7)
4 Sung-Yong Ki
17 Éder
27 K. Bartley
12 N. Dyer
13 K. Nordfeldt
14 F. Tabanou
22 Àngel Rangel

Man United

20 S. Romero G
36 M. Darmian D
12 C. Smalling D
23 L. Shaw D
31 B. Schweinsteiger M
8 Mata M
28 M. Schneiderlin M
17 D. Blind D
21 Ander Herrera M
10 W. Rooney F
7 M. Depay M
Bench (7)
16 M. Carrick
18 A. Young
27 M. Fellaini
14 J. Hernández
25 A. Valencia
33 P. McNair
50 S. Johnstone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Martin Atkinson · 149 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.