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Bundesliga
Referee: Guido Winkmann
Dortmund
S S
3–1
Full-time
Hertha
S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Hertha
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
4,0
1,5
Scored
4,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+4,0
+0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
100%
50%
Points per game
3,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
100%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
4,0
1,5
Scored
4,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
+4,0
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%
15 Shots 4
6 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 1
4 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Dortmund 4. · Hertha 9. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 3 3 0 0 +9 9
2 Wolfsburg 3 2 1 0 +4 7
3 FC Koln 3 2 1 0 +3 7
4 Dortmund 2 2 0 0 +8 6
5 Mainz 3 2 0 1 +3 6
6 Leverkusen 3 2 0 1 -1 6
7 FC Ingolstadt 04 3 2 0 1 -2 6
8 Ein Frankfurt 3 1 1 1 +2 4
9 Hertha 2 1 1 0 +1 4
10 Schalke 04 3 1 1 1 +0 4
11 Darmstadt 3 0 3 0 +0 3
12 Hamburg 3 1 0 2 -5 3
13 Hoffenheim 3 0 1 2 -2 1
14 Augsburg 3 0 1 2 -2 1
15 Werder Bremen 2 0 1 1 -3 1
16 Hannover 3 0 1 2 -4 1
17 M'gladbach 2 0 0 2 -5 0
18 Stuttgart 3 0 0 3 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Dortmund Hertha
1–0 M. Hummels ⚽
S. Kagawa
27′
45′
🟨 Johannes van den Bergh
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. Weiser
↦ V. Stocker
50′
🟨 Mitchell Weiser
2–0 P. Aubameyang ⚽
M. Ginter
51′
58′
🔁 A. Baumjohann
↦ P. Skjelbred
J. Hofmann 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
71′
71′
🔁 S. Kalou
↦ J. van den Bergh
78′
⚽ S. Kalou 2–1
A. Ramos 🔁
↦ I. Gündogan
79′
Ł. Piszczek 🔁
↦ M. Reus
79′
3–1 A. Ramos ⚽
H. Mkhitaryan
93′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Dortmund

38 R. Bürki G
15 M. Hummels D
25 S. Papastathopoulos D
29 M. Schmelzer D
28 M. Ginter D
23 S. Kagawa M
10 H. Mkhitaryan M
8 I. Gündogan M
33 J. Weigl M
17 P. Aubameyang F
11 M. Reus M
Bench (7)
7 J. Hofmann
20 A. Ramos
26 Ł. Piszczek
1 R. Weidenfeller
4 N. Subotić
6 S. Bender
27 G. Castro

Hertha

1 T. Kraft G
28 F. Lustenberger M
15 S. Langkamp D
2 P. Pekarík D
23 J. van den Bergh D
21 M. Plattenhardt D
25 J. Brooks D
3 P. Skjelbred M
14 V. Stocker M
24 G. Haraguchi M
6 V. Darida M
Bench (7)
20 M. Weiser
9 A. Baumjohann
8 S. Kalou
5 N. Stark
17 T. Cigerci
22 R. Jarstein
27 R. Beerens

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Guido Winkmann · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.