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Eredivisie
Referee: Jeroen Manschot
AZ Alkmaar
T U U
0–1
Full-time
Roda
S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Roda
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
This season — Eredivisie · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,7
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%
7 Shots 11
0 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
8 Corners 5
1 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
0 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 14. · Roda 6. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 4 4 0 0 +12 12
2 Heracles 4 3 0 1 +8 9
3 Feyenoord 3 3 0 0 +5 9
4 Zwolle 4 2 2 0 +4 8
5 Heerenveen 4 1 3 0 +2 6
6 Roda 3 2 0 1 +0 6
7 Nijmegen 4 2 0 2 -3 6
8 PSV Eindhoven 3 1 2 0 +2 5
9 Utrecht 4 1 2 1 +1 5
10 Den Haag 4 1 2 1 -1 5
11 Vitesse 3 1 1 1 +1 4
12 Excelsior 4 1 1 2 +0 4
13 Groningen 4 1 1 2 -2 4
14 AZ Alkmaar 3 0 2 1 -3 2
15 Willem II 4 0 2 2 -4 2
16 Twente 4 0 1 3 -6 1
17 Cambuur 3 0 1 2 -7 1
18 De Graafschap 4 0 0 4 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

AZ Alkmaar Roda
20′
🟨 Ard Van Peppen
36′
⚽ R. Griffiths 0–1
M. Paulissen
Half-time 0–1
J. van Overeem 🔁
↦ T. Haye
46′
58′
🟨 Henk Dijkhuizen
M. Tankovic 🔁
↦ G. Hupperts
61′
V. Janssen 🔁
↦ J. van der Linden
61′
62′
🔁 R. Cicilia
↦ M. Paulissen
72′
🔁 J. van Son
↦ H. Faik
79′
🟨 Edwin Gyasi
86′
🔁 M. Höcher
↦ T. Van Hyfte
89′
🟨 Jens Van Son
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

AZ Alkmaar

1 S. Rochet G
14 J. van der Linden D
3 J. Gouweleeuw D
24 R. Haps D
23 D. Luckassen D
10 M. Henriksen M
17 B. Rienstra M
20 T. Haye M
19 D. dos Santos F
7 G. Hupperts F
21 R. Mühren M
Bench (7)
8 J. van Overeem
11 M. Tankovic
18 V. Janssen
2 M. Johansson
4 J. Wuytens
5 R. Brežančić
16 G. Coutinho

Roda

1 B. van Leer G
23 A. Swinkels D
3 G. Sankoh D
5 A. van Peppen D
17 H. Dijkhuizen D
4 R. Griffiths M
7 T. Van Hyfte M
19 M. Paulissen M
24 F. Noor M
8 H. Faik M
27 E. Gyasi M
Bench (7)
29 R. Cicilia
18 J. van Son
10 M. Höcher
28 M. Monteyne
6 N. Rutjes
20 D. Werker
21 B. Verbist

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Jeroen Manschot · 94 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
18,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.