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Ligue 1

Referee: Antony Gautier

St Etienne

T U S

2–1

Full-time

Bastia

S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

St Etienne Bastia

Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

66% Possession 34%

23 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 1

5 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match St Etienne 12. · Bastia 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reims	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+4	9
3	Rennes	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Angers	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Bastia	3	2	1	0	+4	7
6	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Nantes	3	2	1	0	+2	7
8	Caen	4	2	0	2	-3	6
9	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Nice	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Lille	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	St Etienne	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Toulouse	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Marseille	4	1	0	3	+2	3
15	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Troyes	4	0	3	1	-6	3
17	Bordeaux	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Lorient	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Montpellier	4	0	1	3	-4	1
20	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bastia	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Reims	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Rennes	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nantes	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Toulouse	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Marseille	2	1	0	1	+5	3
8	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Guingamp	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Nice	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Troyes	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Caen	2	1	0	1	-3	3
13	Angers	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	St Etienne	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Monaco	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Bordeaux	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Montpellier	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lyon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Angers	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Caen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
7	Reims	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	St Etienne	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Bordeaux	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Bastia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Lille	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Toulouse	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Guingamp	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Troyes	1	0	0	1	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.