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Premier League
Referee: Robert Madley
Aston Villa
S T T
2–2
Full-time
Sunderland
T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Sunderland
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
1,7
4,0
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
33%
100%
Average goals
1,7
4,0
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,0
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

62% Possession 38%
21 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
5 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Aston Villa 14. · Sunderland 19. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 3 3 0 0 +8 9
2 Leicester 3 2 1 0 +3 7
3 Man United 3 2 1 0 +2 7
4 Liverpool 3 2 1 0 +2 7
5 Arsenal 4 2 1 1 +0 7
6 Crystal Palace 3 2 0 1 +2 6
7 Swansea 3 1 2 0 +2 5
8 Everton 3 1 1 1 +1 4
9 Norwich 3 1 1 1 +0 4
10 Chelsea 3 1 1 1 -2 4
11 West Ham 3 1 0 2 +0 3
12 Watford 3 0 3 0 +0 3
13 Bournemouth 3 1 0 2 -1 3
14 Aston Villa 3 1 0 2 -1 3
15 Tottenham 3 0 2 1 -1 2
16 Stoke 3 0 2 1 -1 2
17 Newcastle 4 0 2 2 -3 2
18 Southampton 3 0 2 1 -3 2
19 Sunderland 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 West Brom 3 0 1 2 -4 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Aston Villa Sunderland
8′
⚽ Y. M'Vila 0–1
1–1 S. Sinclair ⚽
11′
Ciaran Clark 🟨
37′
2–1 S. Sinclair ⚽
J. Amavi
41′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 O. Toivonen
↦ L. Cattermole
46′
🔁 S. Fletcher
↦ D. Graham
52′
⚽ J. Lens 2–2
O. Toivonen
Carles Gil 🔁
↦ L. Bacuna
68′
77′
🔁 S. Larsson
↦ J. Lens
Carles Gil 🟨
79′
90′
🟨 Costel Pantilimon
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Aston Villa

1 B. Guzan G
21 A. Hutton D
4 M. Richards D
6 C. Clark D
23 J. Amavi D
24 C. Sánchez M
9 S. Sinclair F
15 A. Westwood M
7 L. Bacuna F
8 I. Gueye M
39 R. Gestede F
Bench (7)
25 Carles Gil
3 J. Bennett
12 J. Cole
17 J. Veretout
19 J. Ayew
27 L. Kozák
31 M. Bunn

Sunderland

1 C. Pantilimon G
15 Y. Kaboul D
16 J. O'Shea D
2 B. Jones D
3 P. van Aanholt D
17 J. Lens F
6 L. Cattermole M
8 J. Rodwell M
21 Y. M'Vila M
18 J. Defoe F
19 D. Graham F
Bench (7)
20 O. Toivonen
26 S. Fletcher
7 S. Larsson
22 S. Coates
25 V. Mannone
41 D. Watmore
46 L. Gooch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Robert Madley · 95 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.