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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Aston Villa

S T T U T

0–1

Full-time

West Brom

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa West Brom

Last 6 — all competitions · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

60%

20%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

60%

40%

Both score Ø 40%

60%

20%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,6

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

13 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 16. · West Brom 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Leicester	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Man United	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Arsenal	6	3	1	2	+0	10
5	West Ham	5	3	0	2	+5	9
6	Crystal Palace	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Everton	5	2	2	1	+3	8
8	Swansea	5	2	2	1	+2	8
9	Norwich	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	Chelsea	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Liverpool	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	Southampton	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Tottenham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Watford	5	1	3	1	-1	6
15	West Brom	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	-2	4
17	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Stoke	5	0	2	3	-4	2
19	Sunderland	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Man United	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	6
4	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Watford	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Everton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	West Ham	3	1	0	2	+0	3
11	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Liverpool	2	1	0	1	-2	3
14	Tottenham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Newcastle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	West Brom	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	West Ham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Crystal Palace	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+0	6
5	Everton	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
10	Southampton	3	0	3	0	+0	3
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Chelsea	3	1	0	2	-4	3
16	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Stoke	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Watford	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.