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Premier League

Referee: Neil Swarbrick

West Ham

S T T T T

1–1

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

19 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match West Ham 18. · Middlesbrough 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+8	16
3	Tottenham	6	4	2	0	+7	14
4	Everton	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Arsenal	6	4	1	1	+8	13
6	Man United	6	4	0	2	+5	12
7	Crystal Palace	7	3	2	2	+3	11
8	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Southampton	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	West Brom	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Watford	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Burnley	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Hull	6	2	1	3	-5	7
15	Bournemouth	6	2	1	3	-5	7
16	Middlesbrough	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4
18	West Ham	6	1	0	5	-9	3
19	Stoke	6	0	2	4	-11	2
20	Sunderland	6	0	1	5	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
3	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+4	7
4	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+7	6
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+4	6
8	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+3	6
9	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+3	6
10	Bournemouth	3	2	0	1	+0	6
11	Southampton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+2	4
13	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+1	4
14	Watford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Hull	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Swansea	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-7	1
20	Sunderland	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+1	10
2	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Everton	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Hull	3	1	1	1	-2	4
12	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	-2	4
13	Southampton	3	1	0	2	+0	3
14	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1
17	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Leicester	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.