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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Wolves

T S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolves Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,5

1,5

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

28%

32%

Points per game

1,2

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

48%

28%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

12 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

5 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Wolves 18. · Aston Villa 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	26	18	1	7	+29	55
2	Brighton	25	16	6	3	+23	54
3	Leeds	26	15	3	8	+11	48
4	Reading	24	14	4	6	+8	46
5	Huddersfield	24	14	4	6	+3	46
6	Derby	26	11	7	8	+5	40
7	Preston	26	11	6	9	+3	39
8	Sheffield Weds	24	11	6	7	+3	39
9	Barnsley	26	11	5	10	+4	38
10	Norwich	26	11	4	11	+3	37
11	Fulham	24	9	9	6	+8	36
12	Birmingham	26	9	9	8	-5	36
13	Aston Villa	25	8	11	6	+2	35
14	Ipswich	26	9	7	10	-3	34
15	Brentford	26	9	6	11	+0	33
16	QPR	26	9	5	12	-11	32
17	Cardiff	25	8	6	11	-10	30
18	Wolves	25	7	8	10	-2	29
19	Bristol City	26	8	3	15	-3	27
20	Nott'm Forest	26	7	6	13	-8	27
21	Burton Albion	26	6	7	13	-10	25
22	Blackburn	26	6	6	14	-12	24
23	Wigan	26	5	7	14	-9	22
24	Rotherham	26	4	4	18	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	12	9	2	1	+19	29
2	Leeds	14	9	2	3	+10	29
3	Reading	13	8	3	2	+10	27
4	Huddersfield	11	8	2	1	+7	26
5	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+13	25
6	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
7	Newcastle	12	8	0	4	+13	24
8	Aston Villa	12	6	6	0	+9	24
9	Ipswich	14	6	5	3	+5	23
10	Derby	13	6	4	3	+7	22
11	Birmingham	14	6	4	4	+1	22
12	Preston	14	6	3	5	+4	21
13	Brentford	13	5	4	4	+6	19
14	Barnsley	13	5	4	4	+2	19
15	Bristol City	13	6	1	6	+1	19
16	Nott'm Forest	12	5	3	4	+2	18
17	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
18	Burton Albion	13	5	2	6	+1	17
19	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-4	17
20	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	16
21	Rotherham	13	4	3	6	-3	15
22	QPR	13	4	3	6	-7	15
23	Wolves	12	3	3	6	-5	12
24	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	13	7	4	2	+4	25
3	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
4	Fulham	11	5	4	2	+6	19
5	Barnsley	13	6	1	6	+2	19
6	Leeds	12	6	1	5	+1	19
7	Reading	11	6	1	4	-2	19
8	Preston	12	5	3	4	-1	18
9	Derby	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	Wolves	13	4	5	4	+3	17
11	QPR	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Sheffield Weds	12	3	5	4	-2	14
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-6	14
14	Birmingham	12	3	5	4	-6	14
15	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
16	Cardiff	12	3	4	5	-6	13
17	Norwich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Aston Villa	13	2	5	6	-7	11
19	Ipswich	12	3	2	7	-8	11
20	Nott'm Forest	14	2	3	9	-10	9
21	Bristol City	13	2	2	9	-4	8
22	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
23	Burton Albion	13	1	5	7	-11	8
24	Rotherham	13	0	1	12	-26	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.