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Premier League
Referee: Michael Oliver
Burnley
T T S T U
1–0
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Crystal Palace
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,8
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
83%
0%
Average goals
3,0
2,8
Scored
1,3
0,7
Conceded
1,7
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-1,5
This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,3
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
2,7
2,0
Scored
1,3
0,0
Conceded
1,3
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%
4 Shots 23
2 Shots on target 4
0 Blocked shots 13
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 13
8 Offside 1
7 Free kicks against 14
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Burnley 12. · Crystal Palace 18.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man United 4 3 1 0 +10 10
2 Man City 4 3 1 0 +8 10
3 Chelsea 4 3 0 1 +3 9
4 Watford 4 2 2 0 +4 8
5 Tottenham 4 2 1 1 +4 7
6 Huddersfield 3 2 1 0 +4 7
7 Liverpool 4 2 1 1 +0 7
8 West Brom 4 2 1 1 +0 7
9 Arsenal 4 2 0 2 -1 6
10 Stoke 4 1 2 1 +0 5
11 Southampton 4 1 2 1 -1 5
12 Burnley 3 1 1 1 +0 4
13 Brighton 4 1 1 2 -2 4
14 Swansea 3 1 1 1 -2 4
15 Everton 4 1 1 2 -4 4
16 Newcastle 3 1 0 2 +0 3
17 Leicester 4 1 0 3 -2 3
18 Crystal Palace 3 0 0 3 -6 0
19 Bournemouth 4 0 0 4 -7 0
20 West Ham 3 0 0 3 -8 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Burnley Crystal Palace
1–0 C. Wood
3′
Robbie Brady 🟨
34′
N. Pope 🔁
↦ T. Heaton
36′
Half-time 1–0
A. Barnes 🔁
↦ S. Vokes
64′
65′
🔁 L. Lumeka
↦ Lee Chung-Yong
75′
🟨 Christian Benteke
81′
🔁 J. Riedewald
↦ J. McArthur
A. Westwood 🔁
↦ S. Defour
82′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Burnley

4-4-2
1 T. Heaton G
23 S. Ward D
2 M. Lowton D
6 B. Mee D
5 J. Tarkowski D
16 S. Defour M
4 J. Cork M
17 J. Guðmunds­son M
12 R. Brady M
9 S. Vokes F
11 C. Wood F
Bench (7)
29 N. Pope
10 A. Barnes
18 A. Westwood
26 P. Bardsley
19 J. Walters
28 K. Long
37 S. Arfield

Coach: S. Dyche

Crystal Palace

4-3-3
13 W. Hennessey G
6 S. Dann D
2 J. Ward D
15 J. Schlupp D
24 T. Fosu-Mensah D
7 Y. Cabaye M
14 Lee Chung-Yong F
42 J. Puncheon M
18 J. McArthur M
10 A. Townsend F
17 C. Benteke F
Bench (7)
32 L. Lumeka
44 J. Riedewald
25 S. Kaikai
4 L. Milivojević
3 P. van Aanholt
34 M. Kelly
1 J. Speroni

Coach: F. de Boer

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Michael Oliver · 163 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
18,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.