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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Guimaraes

T U S U U

2–0

Full-time

Santa Clara

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Santa Clara

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

33%

44%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

44%

78%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

1,4

1,9

Conceded

1,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

20 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 9. · Santa Clara 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	8	0	2	+15	24
2	Sp Braga	10	6	3	1	+9	21
3	Sp Lisbon	9	6	1	2	+7	19
4	Rio Ave	10	5	3	2	+4	18
5	Benfica	9	5	2	2	+6	17
6	Moreirense	10	5	1	4	-3	16
7	Santa Clara	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Vitoria Setubal	10	4	2	4	+2	14
9	Guimaraes	9	3	3	3	+1	12
10	Belenenses	10	2	6	2	-1	12
11	Portimonense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
12	Aves	10	3	1	6	-4	10
13	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-7	10
14	Tondela	9	2	3	4	+0	9
15	Feirense	10	2	3	5	-4	9
16	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-6	9
17	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-9	9
18	Chaves	9	2	1	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	0	1	+11	15
2	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Rio Ave	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	12
5	Benfica	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Moreirense	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Vitoria Setubal	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Portimonense	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Aves	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Santa Clara	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
13	Tondela	5	1	2	2	+0	5
14	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Nacional	5	1	0	4	-8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Sp Braga	5	2	2	1	+3	8
3	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+4	7
4	Santa Clara	4	2	1	1	+3	7
5	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	+1	7
6	Belenenses	5	1	4	0	+1	7
7	Sp Lisbon	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
9	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-5	6
10	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	5
11	Vitoria Setubal	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-4	5
13	Tondela	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Feirense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-5	3
16	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
17	Chaves	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-7	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.