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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Man United

T S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Man City

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 92%

83%

100%

Points per game

2,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,2

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 83%

73%

93%

Points per game

2,3

2,9

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

60%

73%

Both score Ø 43%

33%

53%

Average goals

2,9

3,7

Scored

2,3

3,1

Conceded

0,6

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+2,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

8 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 8

4 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 2. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	15	14	1	0	+36	43
2	Man United	15	11	2	2	+26	35
3	Chelsea	16	10	2	4	+15	32
4	Liverpool	16	8	6	2	+14	30
5	Arsenal	16	9	2	5	+10	29
6	Tottenham	16	8	4	4	+14	28
7	Burnley	16	8	4	4	+3	28
8	Leicester	16	6	5	5	+1	23
9	Watford	16	6	4	6	-2	22
10	Everton	16	5	4	7	-9	19
11	Southampton	16	4	6	6	-3	18
12	Huddersfield	16	5	3	8	-15	18
13	Brighton	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Bournemouth	16	4	4	8	-4	16
15	Stoke	16	4	4	8	-16	16
16	Newcastle	16	4	3	9	-9	15
17	West Brom	16	2	7	7	-10	13
18	West Ham	16	3	4	9	-18	13
19	Swansea	16	3	3	10	-9	12
20	Crystal Palace	16	2	5	9	-17	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	7	1	0	+22	22
2	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
3	Arsenal	8	7	0	1	+14	21
4	Liverpool	8	4	4	0	+11	16
5	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Tottenham	8	4	3	1	+8	15
7	Everton	8	5	0	3	+2	15
8	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+3	14
9	Huddersfield	8	4	2	2	+0	14
10	Leicester	8	4	1	3	+2	13
11	Southampton	9	3	3	3	+1	12
12	Stoke	8	3	2	3	-5	11
13	Newcastle	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Brighton	8	2	4	2	-3	10
15	West Ham	7	3	1	3	-3	10
16	Crystal Palace	8	2	3	3	-4	9
17	Watford	8	2	3	3	-6	9
18	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	+0	8
19	West Brom	8	1	5	2	-4	8
20	Swansea	8	2	1	5	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+9	16
3	Man United	8	4	2	2	+7	14
4	Liverpool	8	4	2	2	+3	14
5	Burnley	8	4	2	2	+0	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	1	3	+6	13
7	Watford	8	4	1	3	+4	13
8	Leicester	8	2	4	2	-1	10
9	Arsenal	8	2	2	4	-4	8
10	Bournemouth	8	2	2	4	-4	8
11	Brighton	8	2	1	5	-4	7
12	Southampton	7	1	3	3	-4	6
13	Swansea	8	1	2	5	-4	5
14	West Brom	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-7	5
16	Stoke	8	1	2	5	-11	5
17	Everton	8	0	4	4	-11	4
18	Huddersfield	8	1	1	6	-15	4
19	West Ham	9	0	3	6	-15	3
20	Crystal Palace	8	0	2	6	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.