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Premier League

Referee: Mark Clattenburg

Man United

T S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Man City

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

33%

100%

Average goals

2,3

4,0

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 18

3 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 4

3 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 3. · Man City 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Man United	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Everton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Hull	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Tottenham	3	1	2	0	+1	5
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Arsenal	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	West Ham	3	1	0	2	-2	3
13	Burnley	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Swansea	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Sunderland	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Watford	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-3	1
20	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Everton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Man United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Hull	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Arsenal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Sunderland	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Bournemouth	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Watford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
19	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-1	4
5	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Hull	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Chelsea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	West Ham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Burnley	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.