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Bundesliga

Referee: Martin Petersen

RB Leipzig

S S T S T

4–1

Full-time

Mainz

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 43%

50%

36%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 43%

36%

50%

Average goals

2,6

2,0

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

43% Possession 57%

18 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 4. · Mainz 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	15	12	3	0	+26	39
2	M'gladbach	15	9	3	3	+17	30
3	Bayern Munich	15	9	3	3	+14	30
4	RB Leipzig	14	7	4	3	+11	25
5	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	2	5	+13	23
6	Hoffenheim	15	6	5	4	+9	23
7	Hertha	15	6	5	4	+1	23
8	Wolfsburg	15	6	4	5	+2	22
9	Werder Bremen	15	6	3	6	+0	21
10	Mainz	14	5	4	5	-2	19
11	Leverkusen	14	5	3	6	-5	18
12	Freiburg	15	4	5	6	-5	17
13	Schalke 04	15	4	3	8	-5	15
14	Augsburg	15	3	5	7	-3	14
15	Stuttgart	15	4	2	9	-19	14
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	3	3	9	-16	12
17	Nurnberg	15	2	5	8	-21	11
18	Hannover	15	2	4	9	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	8	7	1	0	+17	22
2	M'gladbach	7	7	0	0	+18	21
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+14	17
4	Hertha	7	4	2	1	+3	14
5	Hoffenheim	8	3	3	2	+5	12
6	Bayern Munich	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Freiburg	8	3	3	2	+2	12
8	Mainz	8	3	3	2	+1	12
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+10	10
11	Leverkusen	7	3	1	3	-3	10
12	Stuttgart	7	3	1	3	-7	10
13	Schalke 04	7	3	0	4	-1	9
14	Nurnberg	8	2	3	3	-1	9
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	3	0	5	-2	9
16	Wolfsburg	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	Augsburg	7	1	4	2	+0	7
18	Hannover	7	2	1	4	-6	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	0	2	+10	18
2	Dortmund	7	5	2	0	+9	17
3	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+5	13
4	Ein Frankfurt	8	4	1	3	+3	13
5	Hoffenheim	7	3	2	2	+4	11
6	Werder Bremen	7	3	1	3	+1	10
7	M'gladbach	8	2	3	3	-1	9
8	Hertha	8	2	3	3	-2	9
9	Leverkusen	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	RB Leipzig	7	2	2	3	-3	8
11	Augsburg	8	2	1	5	-3	7
12	Mainz	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	-4	6
14	Freiburg	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Stuttgart	8	1	1	6	-12	4
16	Hannover	8	0	3	5	-11	3
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	0	3	4	-14	3
18	Nurnberg	7	0	2	5	-20	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.