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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Brighton

T T T U T

1–1

Full-time

Newcastle

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,8

Scored

0,0

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 29%

26%

31%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

49%

46%

Both score Ø 48%

49%

46%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,9

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

9 Shots 9

2 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 4

3 Offside 0

7 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 17. · Newcastle 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	36	28	7	1	+64	91
2	Man City	35	29	2	4	+67	89
3	Tottenham	36	23	1	12	+29	70
4	Chelsea	35	20	7	8	+21	67
5	Arsenal	35	20	6	9	+23	66
6	Man United	35	19	7	9	+13	64
7	Wolves	36	15	9	12	+2	54
8	Everton	36	14	8	14	+6	50
9	Watford	36	14	8	14	-1	50
10	Leicester	35	14	6	15	+1	48
11	West Ham	36	13	7	16	-9	46
12	Crystal Palace	36	12	7	17	-5	43
13	Bournemouth	36	12	6	18	-13	42
14	Newcastle	35	11	8	16	-9	41
15	Burnley	35	11	7	17	-18	40
16	Southampton	36	9	11	16	-17	38
17	Brighton	35	9	7	19	-22	34
18	Cardiff	36	9	4	23	-36	31
19	Fulham	36	7	5	24	-42	26
20	Huddersfield	36	3	5	28	-54	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	17	0	1	+44	51
2	Liverpool	18	16	2	0	+43	50
3	Arsenal	18	14	2	2	+26	44
4	Chelsea	18	11	6	1	+24	39
5	Tottenham	18	12	1	5	+18	37
6	Man United	17	10	5	2	+10	35
7	Everton	18	9	4	5	+7	31
8	Wolves	18	9	4	5	+6	31
9	West Ham	18	8	4	6	+2	28
10	Watford	18	8	3	7	+1	27
11	Bournemouth	18	7	5	6	+4	26
12	Newcastle	18	8	1	9	+0	25
13	Leicester	17	7	2	8	+1	23
14	Burnley	17	7	2	8	-5	23
15	Southampton	18	5	7	6	-3	22
16	Brighton	17	6	4	7	-6	22
17	Fulham	18	6	3	9	-10	21
18	Cardiff	18	6	2	10	-16	20
19	Crystal Palace	18	4	5	9	-6	17
20	Huddersfield	18	2	2	14	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	12	5	1	+21	41
2	Man City	17	12	2	3	+23	38
3	Tottenham	18	11	0	7	+11	33
4	Man United	18	9	2	7	+3	29
5	Chelsea	17	9	1	7	-3	28
6	Crystal Palace	18	8	2	8	+1	26
7	Leicester	18	7	4	7	+0	25
8	Watford	18	6	5	7	-2	23
9	Wolves	18	6	5	7	-4	23
10	Arsenal	17	6	4	7	-3	22
11	Everton	18	5	4	9	-1	19
12	West Ham	18	5	3	10	-11	18
13	Burnley	18	4	5	9	-13	17
14	Newcastle	17	3	7	7	-9	16
15	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-14	16
16	Bournemouth	18	5	1	12	-17	16
17	Brighton	18	3	3	12	-16	12
18	Cardiff	18	3	2	13	-20	11
19	Huddersfield	18	1	3	14	-33	6
20	Fulham	18	1	2	15	-32	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.