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Premier League

Referee: Andre Marriner

Brighton

T T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Newcastle

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brighton Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

40%

20%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

7 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brighton 17. · Newcastle 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	6	5	1	0	+19	16
2	Man United	6	5	1	0	+15	16
3	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+7	13
4	Tottenham	6	3	2	1	+5	11
5	Liverpool	6	3	2	1	+1	11
6	Watford	6	3	2	1	-1	11
7	Newcastle	5	3	0	2	+2	9
8	Huddersfield	6	2	3	1	+2	9
9	Burnley	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+0	8
11	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	8
12	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-1	7
13	Everton	6	2	1	3	-7	7
14	Swansea	6	1	2	3	-4	5
15	Stoke	6	1	2	3	-5	5
16	Leicester	6	1	1	4	-3	4
17	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	West Ham	6	1	1	4	-7	4
19	Bournemouth	6	1	0	5	-7	3
20	Crystal Palace	6	0	0	6	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
3	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
4	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Newcastle	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Everton	3	2	0	1	-1	6
7	West Brom	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Huddersfield	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
12	Stoke	3	1	1	1	-3	4
13	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Leicester	3	1	0	2	+0	3
15	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
17	Tottenham	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Watford	3	0	2	1	-6	2
19	Swansea	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Tottenham	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Chelsea	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Watford	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Man United	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Swansea	3	1	2	0	+2	5
7	Burnley	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Liverpool	3	1	1	1	-4	4
11	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Stoke	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Leicester	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Arsenal	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Everton	3	0	1	2	-6	1
18	West Ham	4	0	1	3	-8	1
19	Bournemouth	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.