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Championship

Referee: Darren Bond

Bristol City

U S T U T

0–2

Full-time

Derby

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bristol City Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

This season — Championship · 43/40 matches

Win Ø 44%

42%

45%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

37%

48%

Both score Ø 57%

53%

60%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,6

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

23 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 11

5 Corners 2

1 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bristol City 8. · Derby 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	44	25	13	6	+34	88
2	Sheffield United	44	25	10	9	+35	85
3	Leeds	42	23	7	12	+19	76
4	West Brom	42	21	10	11	+24	73
5	Aston Villa	41	19	14	8	+20	71
6	Derby	40	18	13	9	+20	67
7	Middlesbrough	44	18	13	13	+6	67
8	Bristol City	43	18	12	13	+7	66
9	Sheffield Weds	44	16	15	13	-1	63
10	Swansea	43	18	8	17	+3	62
11	Nott'm Forest	44	15	15	14	+5	60
12	Preston	44	16	12	16	+3	60
13	Hull	44	17	9	18	-2	60
14	Birmingham	44	14	17	13	+6	59
15	Blackburn	44	16	11	17	-4	59
16	Brentford	44	15	13	16	+10	58
17	Stoke	45	11	21	13	-7	54
18	Wigan	44	12	12	20	-14	48
19	QPR	44	13	9	22	-18	48
20	Reading	44	10	16	18	-16	46
21	Millwall	44	10	14	20	-14	44
22	Rotherham	44	8	16	20	-29	40
23	Bolton	44	8	8	28	-47	32
24	Ipswich	44	4	16	24	-40	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	22	14	4	4	+23	46
2	Norwich	22	14	4	4	+16	46
3	Brentford	22	13	4	5	+24	43
4	Derby	21	12	7	2	+21	43
5	Leeds	21	13	3	5	+15	42
6	Swansea	21	12	4	5	+14	40
7	Nott'm Forest	22	12	4	6	+12	40
8	West Brom	21	11	6	4	+21	39
9	Aston Villa	20	10	8	2	+13	38
10	Hull	22	11	5	6	+13	38
11	Sheffield Weds	22	10	8	4	+8	38
12	Wigan	22	10	8	4	+8	38
13	Blackburn	22	10	6	6	+11	36
14	Preston	22	8	9	5	+11	33
15	Middlesbrough	22	9	6	7	+5	33
16	Bristol City	22	8	8	6	+4	32
17	Stoke	22	8	8	6	+2	32
18	Birmingham	22	7	10	5	+7	31
19	QPR	22	9	3	10	+3	30
20	Millwall	22	7	9	6	+0	30
21	Reading	22	8	5	9	-2	29
22	Rotherham	22	7	8	7	-5	29
23	Ipswich	22	2	11	9	-10	17
24	Bolton	22	4	4	14	-21	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	22	11	9	2	+18	42
2	Sheffield United	22	11	6	5	+12	39
3	Leeds	21	10	4	7	+4	34
4	West Brom	21	10	4	7	+3	34
5	Bristol City	21	10	4	7	+3	34
6	Middlesbrough	22	9	7	6	+1	34
7	Aston Villa	21	9	6	6	+7	33
8	Birmingham	22	7	7	8	-1	28
9	Preston	22	8	3	11	-8	27
10	Sheffield Weds	22	6	7	9	-9	25
11	Derby	19	6	6	7	-1	24
12	Blackburn	22	6	5	11	-15	23
13	Stoke	23	3	13	7	-9	22
14	Swansea	22	6	4	12	-11	22
15	Hull	22	6	4	12	-15	22
16	Nott'm Forest	22	3	11	8	-7	20
17	QPR	22	4	6	12	-21	18
18	Reading	22	2	11	9	-14	17
19	Bolton	22	4	4	14	-26	16
20	Brentford	22	2	9	11	-14	15
21	Millwall	22	3	5	14	-14	14
22	Rotherham	22	1	8	13	-24	11
23	Ipswich	22	2	5	15	-30	11
24	Wigan	22	2	4	16	-22	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.