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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Schroder

RB Leipzig

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Freiburg

U U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

2,3

0,8

Conceded

0,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-1,5

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 42%

60%

23%

Points per game

2,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

50%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

37%

63%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,1

-0,5

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 8

4 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

0 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 3. · Freiburg 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	30	22	4	4	+50	70
2	Dortmund	30	21	6	3	+36	69
3	RB Leipzig	30	18	7	5	+34	61
4	Ein Frankfurt	30	15	8	7	+23	53
5	M'gladbach	30	15	6	9	+12	51
6	Leverkusen	31	16	3	12	+8	51
7	Hoffenheim	30	13	11	6	+24	50
8	Werder Bremen	30	12	10	8	+10	46
9	Wolfsburg	30	13	7	10	+3	46
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	30	11	4	15	-19	37
11	Hertha	30	9	9	12	-7	36
12	Mainz	30	10	6	14	-14	36
13	Freiburg	30	7	11	12	-15	32
14	Augsburg	31	8	7	16	-12	31
15	Schalke 04	30	7	6	17	-20	27
16	Stuttgart	30	5	6	19	-40	21
17	Nurnberg	30	3	9	18	-32	18
18	Hannover	30	3	6	21	-41	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	15	13	2	0	+28	41
2	Bayern Munich	15	11	3	1	+29	36
3	RB Leipzig	15	9	5	1	+24	32
4	M'gladbach	15	9	2	4	+11	29
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	8	3	4	+13	27
6	Hoffenheim	15	7	5	3	+12	26
7	Werder Bremen	15	7	5	3	+8	26
8	Mainz	15	7	4	4	+7	25
9	Leverkusen	15	8	1	6	+2	25
10	Wolfsburg	15	6	5	4	+4	23
11	Freiburg	15	5	6	4	+1	21
12	Hertha	15	5	6	4	+1	21
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	7	0	8	-5	21
14	Augsburg	16	5	4	7	+2	19
15	Stuttgart	15	4	4	7	-9	16
16	Nurnberg	15	3	6	6	-2	15
17	Schalke 04	15	4	1	10	-12	13
18	Hannover	15	3	1	11	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	15	11	1	3	+21	34
2	RB Leipzig	15	9	2	4	+10	29
3	Dortmund	15	8	4	3	+8	28
4	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	5	3	+10	26
5	Leverkusen	16	8	2	6	+6	26
6	Hoffenheim	15	6	6	3	+12	24
7	Wolfsburg	15	7	2	6	-1	23
8	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+1	22
9	Werder Bremen	15	5	5	5	+2	20
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	4	7	-14	16
11	Hertha	15	4	3	8	-8	15
12	Schalke 04	15	3	5	7	-8	14
13	Augsburg	15	3	3	9	-14	12
14	Freiburg	15	2	5	8	-16	11
15	Mainz	15	3	2	10	-21	11
16	Hannover	15	0	5	10	-26	5
17	Stuttgart	15	1	2	12	-31	5
18	Nurnberg	15	0	3	12	-30	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.