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Championship

Referee: Mike Dean

Birmingham

U S T S T

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 32%

43%

21%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

50%

29%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 7. · Aston Villa 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	15	11	1	3	+20	34
2	Brighton	15	9	4	2	+14	31
3	Huddersfield	14	9	1	4	+0	28
4	Norwich	15	8	3	4	+2	27
5	Reading	15	7	4	4	-1	25
6	Bristol City	15	7	3	5	+6	24
7	Birmingham	14	6	5	3	+3	23
8	Leeds	15	7	2	6	+1	23
9	Brentford	15	6	4	5	+7	22
10	Fulham	15	5	6	4	+3	21
11	Sheffield Weds	14	6	3	5	-2	21
12	Barnsley	15	6	2	7	+3	20
13	Preston	15	6	2	7	+0	20
14	QPR	15	5	4	6	-5	19
15	Ipswich	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Aston Villa	14	3	8	3	+0	17
17	Wolves	15	4	5	6	-1	17
18	Burton Albion	15	4	5	6	-2	17
19	Derby	15	4	5	6	-2	17
20	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-5	15
21	Cardiff	15	4	3	8	-10	15
22	Wigan	15	3	5	7	-2	14
23	Blackburn	15	3	4	8	-8	13
24	Rotherham	15	1	4	10	-19	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	8	6	1	1	+13	19
2	Huddersfield	6	6	0	0	+6	18
3	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+6	16
4	Bristol City	7	5	1	1	+5	16
5	Newcastle	7	5	0	2	+8	15
6	Reading	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Sheffield Weds	7	5	0	2	+2	15
8	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+9	14
9	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	14
10	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+3	14
11	Burton Albion	7	4	1	2	+5	13
12	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
13	Ipswich	8	3	4	1	+4	13
14	Preston	8	4	0	4	+4	12
15	Aston Villa	7	2	5	0	+4	11
16	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+2	11
17	Wigan	7	2	3	2	+2	9
18	Fulham	8	2	3	3	+0	9
19	Derby	8	2	3	3	-1	9
20	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-2	9
21	QPR	8	2	3	3	-6	9
22	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
23	Cardiff	8	2	1	5	-6	7
24	Rotherham	7	1	3	3	-2	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+3	12
3	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+1	12
4	Norwich	8	3	2	3	-4	11
5	QPR	7	3	1	3	+1	10
6	Reading	7	3	1	3	-5	10
7	Huddersfield	8	3	1	4	-6	10
8	Barnsley	7	3	0	4	+1	9
9	Wolves	8	2	3	3	+1	9
10	Leeds	7	3	0	4	-2	9
11	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	-2	9
12	Bristol City	8	2	2	4	+1	8
13	Derby	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Brentford	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	-4	8
16	Preston	7	2	2	3	-4	8
17	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Aston Villa	7	1	3	3	-4	6
19	Wigan	8	1	2	5	-4	5
20	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	4
22	Burton Albion	8	0	4	4	-7	4
23	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-9	2
24	Rotherham	8	0	1	7	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.